Highlights
– Washington’s commitment to Taiwan has been questioned over the latest delay in arms sales to the island nation
– Relations between the US and Taiwan are expected to remain strong, but pressure from China will complicate military cooperation between the US and Taiwan
When President George W. Bush took office in 2001, he made a bold and principled decision to offer Taiwan a range of military equipment for its security. Under the Taiwan Relations Act passed in 1979, which has governed relations between the two countries, the United States is obligated to provide Taiwan with “arms of a defensive character.”
However, on July 16, 2008, Admiral Timothy Keating, commander of the US Pacific Command, confirmed that the Bush administration has frozen arms sales to Taiwan. A delay in the approval of an US$11 billion arms sale to the island nation has fueled concerns about US commitment to assist the country in its defensive strategies.
Speculation on the reasons for the freeze has mounted in the absence of a clear explanation from the US, especially since Taiwan’s legislature approved the purchase of the weapons in December 2007 and the Bush administration has yet to notify Congress of the sale.
Despite the arms purchase uncertainty, the US and Taiwan are expected to maintain a strong relationship in the long-term.
Weapons Package
The US$11 billion weapons package in question includes Boeing Apache Longbow attack helicopters, Sikorsky Blackhawk helicopters, Raytheon Patriot PAC-3 air-defense batteries, and designs for diesel electric submarines. However, the US has not responded to a request from Taiwan for more than 60 F-16 fighter jets to boost its air power. As such, top Taiwanese national security officials are reportedly dropping the push for the F-16s for now in order to focus on getting the other weapon systems approved.
Regarding recent arms sales to Taiwan, Admiral Timothy Keating was quoted as saying, “US decision-makers have reconciled Taiwan’s current military posture, China’s current military posture and strategy that indicates there is no pressing, compelling need for at this moment arms sales to Taiwan of the systems that are in question.”
US arms sales to the island nation are full of complications, but ultimately required by the 1979 law that switched US diplomatic ties from Taipei to Beijing. The law says the president and the Congress shall determine the nature and quantity of such sales based on their judgments of the current and future needs of Taiwan.
Military Cooperation Outlook
During the eight-year tenure of former Taiwan president Chen Shui-bian, political infighting and Chen’s independence-leaning policies angered China’s leaders. Mr. Chen’s inability to push through arms purchases and his aggressive pro-independence rhetoric largely interfered with improving US-China relations. There was also a considerable amount of damage done to US-Taiwan relations, with the country’s air, missile defense, and antisubmarine warfare capabilities falling further behind and important military acquisitions postponed.
Arms sales to Taiwan have complicated relations between the US and China, especially the sale of advanced weapons systems, such as the PAC-3 system. However, the US has reasons to avoid upsetting China, including the Beijing-hosted six-party talks aimed at halting and eventually scrapping North Korea’s nuclear materials and programs. According to a former senior Asia official at the US Department of State (DoS), the best chance for the arms sale is right after the Olympic games.
Import of Future Relationship
Despite the warming of relations between China and Taiwan, President Ma Ying-jeou continues to express his desire for resumed purchases of US arms. Unless Beijing removes its short to medium-range ballistic missiles targeting Taiwan and reduces the number of combat aircraft and troops on its side of the Taiwan Straight, which is highly unlikely, Taiwan will continue requesting advanced weapons from the US.
Relations between the US and Taiwan are expected to remain strong in the mid to long-term, but pressure from China on the US is likely to increase as it continues to finance US debt and leave Washington worried that it will not cooperate on key international issues, such as North Korea’s nuclear program. Ultimately, the US will have to balance the issue of fulfilling Taiwan’s defense needs and successfully doing so without upsetting China or creating a strategic military imbalance between the two Asian nations, something that will prove to be difficult.
