Highlights
– Radovan Karadzic had eluded justice for a decade
– Karadzic likely assisted by sympathetic Serb nationalists
– Quest for EU membership motivation for turning over Karadzic
The arrest of notorious war crimes suspect or Serb national hero, Radovan Karadzic depending on one’s perspective on the Bosnian War, has sent shockwaves through both Serbia and the international community. Karadzic was probably the most wanted man in Europe, a visceral reminder that the ghosts of the Balkan War still remained.
Yet, he managed to elude capture for a decade despite his infamy and the fact that numerous security forces had been searching for him. It appears that Karadzic was hiding in plain sight as Dragan Dabic, but altering his appearance significantly with long hair and a heavy beard and living in Belgrade practicing alternative medicine. This seems a far cry from the early days of his life on the run when he apparently moved around from monasteries and caves in remote areas of Bosnia to avoid detection.
The apprehension of Karadzic is a positive step in overall Serbia – European Union (EU) relations, and will strengthen the dialogue regarding possible Serbian inclusion in the EU in the near-term. However, the long-term relationship may be impacted by an upsurge of nationalism that may result from Karadzic’s media attention.
Karadzic Protected and Sheltered
It is widely believed that Karadzic received a great deal of aid to avoid capture during the past decade. Those aiding Karadzic include fellow Serb nationalists who believe he was a national hero and government officials who protected him for their own personal reasons. Nationalism is so ingrained in Serbian politics and institutions that it would be difficult to believe that Karadzic did not have help from official channels.
Hiding in plain sight may be a slight misnomer. Karadzic lived in the capital city of Belgrade and was able to successfully integrate into public life there. It is possible that after ten years he felt confident and protected enough to do so.
It has been reported that US and British intelligence forces may have tipped off Serbian officials as to his whereabouts. Previously, Karadzic almost always managed to escape before authorities moved in. Pro-Western President Boris Tadic recently appointed an ally to replace the head of the intelligence agency, a move seen as important to facilitating the arrest of Karadzic.
Changing Times
Karadzic’s arrest is a sign of changing times. President Tadic has dealt with many challenges from nationalist interests and politicians in Serbia to the extent that the last government failed, torn apart by the fissures between nationalists and those Serbs who wished to move beyond the war and integrate into the West, especially such institutions as the European Union.
Now that President Tadic has managed to find new political life with his coalition government after recent elections, he is moving quickly to implement his policies. One of the main goals of his administration is to join the EU. However, the issue of turning over war criminals is a major sticking point in EU negotiations.
While Serbia has pledged to cooperate on the issue, final resolution on the most notorious war criminals, Radovan Karadzic and Gen Ratko Mladic has always remained a key issue.
Outlook
It is likely that the capture of Radovan Karadzic will do much to improve Serbia-EU relations. However, when Karadzic defends himself at trial at the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY), he will be dramatic and defend his actions stirring up Serb nationalism at home. This could become a danger for Boris Tadic’s Western objectives.
