Highlights
– India’s ruling coalition government has survived a no confidence vote held in the lower house of parliament
– Charges of corruption and bribery have been made against the current government coalition
– India-US nuclear deal still faces numerous obstacles
On July 22, 2008 the Indian government narrowly survived a no-confidence vote. The vote was called due to the departure of a group of left wing parties from the current ruling coalition, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), in response to its opposition to the US-Indian civilian nuclear deal.
As has been discussed before, the US-Indian civilian nuclear deal is a package of diplomatic and economic incentives designed to bring Indian nuclear programs further inline with existing nuclear proliferation treaties. The left wing critics have opposed this agreement due to allegations that it will align India too closely to the US and infringe upon the country’s sovereignty.
Due to the departure of the left wing parties, the UPA recruited the Samajwadi Party (SP) and its 34 votes, in order to reach a basic majority vote and thus win the no-confidence measure. The UPA eventually won with the official count at 275 to 256.
The narrow victory was also aided by the abstention of several key opposing MPs, allegations of extensive bribery, and several members of parliament (MP) released from jail. These MPs were sentenced for various crimes including arson, murder, and kidnapping.
Future political disruptions in India will likely continue as the nuclear package debate continues.
Shape of the New Government
The UPA has not managed to maintain a simple majority of parliament since its inception in 2004 and has required ad hoc coalitions with regional groups such as the SP in order to survive. The inclusion of the SP may result in a change in the overall shape of the government to include nominal positions in the current government for SP members, the reinvestigation of the SP’s main rival for charges of corruption, and the formation of a regional electoral alliance in Uttar Pradesh, the home region of the SP.
Additionally, with the new alliances in the UPA, Prime Minister Singh could potentially begin working on a number of his ambitious economic reforms that were continuously disrupted by his former left wing colleagues. However, the nuclear deal, and the ensuing discourse may complicate any significant strides in the near-term.
Domestic Rumblings
Prior to the no-confidence vote, the Indian Parliament underwent a two-day debate in which a number of allegations of vote buying were levied against the UPA. Three members of the main opposition party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) paraded bags containing 2.1 million dollars in bribe money throughout the floor of the parliament claiming that UPA members attempted to buy their votes. Allegations of bribery is nothing new in India, a country that consistently ranks the lowest on a number of corruption and bribery studies, however, this public spectacle has helped o instigate a formal investigation into the allegations.
Outlook
Despite the UPA surviving the no-confidence vote there remain significant barriers to the passage of the US-India nuclear deal. If the plan passes the Indian Parliament it still needs to be approved by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and the Nuclear Suppliers Group. Both of these groups contain members, such as China and Canada, which oppose the nuclear deal and will require significant diplomatic leverage in order to relent from their opposition.
The new UPA coalition should be able to survive in its present state until the next election cycle in 2009. However, factors such as record high inflation, an active terrorist campaign being waged throughout the country, and a dangerous insurgency in the eastern region of the country could complicate the election results.
