Highlights
– A series of explosions take place in Bangalore and Ahmadabad within one day of each other
– Indian Mujahideen claims responsibility for the attacks via email, similar to claim of responsibility for Uttar Pradesh and Jaipur blasts
– Indian officials detain at least 30; however, similar attacks remain likely for the long-term
Over the past weekend a total of 24 bombs exploded in Bangalore and Ahmadabad, killing nearly 50 people and injuring over 200. Serial blasts are becoming increasingly common throughout major cities in India, as several terrorist groups seek to incite communal unrest. Militants routinely target densely populated areas and plant explosives on ordinary looking objects such as bicycles and lunch boxes making it difficult for Indian security forces to thwart attacks.
Indian intelligence officials are rarely aware of an attack beforehand and the response of security forces after each attack further highlights the inability of authorities to effectively find and capture the individuals responsible. The government often places the blame on Pakistani and Bangladeshi insurgents, without corroborating evidence.
Continued attacks on soft targets in key Indian cities remain likely for the mid to long-term, as security officials struggle to stop the growing trend of deadly serial blasts.
Similar Characteristics
On July 25, 2008, seven low-intensity bombs exploded within a ten-kilometer radius in Bangalore, India’s information technology hub . The blasts killed at least one person and injured dozens of others near police facilities, a city center business district, a district known to house several computer software firms and nearby suburbs. All seven explosions occurred within 45 minutes and were reportedly set off by timer devices and mobile phones.
Only one day later 17 bomb blasts shook Ahmadabad, the capital of Gujarat, killing at least 49 people and injuring hundreds more . Again the bombs exploded in a ten-kilometer radius within minutes of each other in crowded areas of the city. The final two explosions occurred outside a hospital full of victims from previous blasts.
Moments before the bombs were detonated in Ahmadabad, several Indian media outlets, as well as India’s Intelligence Bureau received an email warning of the attacks from a group claiming to be called the Indian Mujahideen. A similar email was sent before the serial Uttar Pradesh bombings in November 2007 and the Jaipur blasts in May 2008 .
The execution of all the attacks mentioned above indicates a growing level of sophistication among Indian militants. The blasts in each city were carefully disguised in objects such as bicycles, lunch boxes or cars, and the close timing and proximity likely took extensive pre-planning.
Suspects
As we have previously stated, the Indian Mujahideen is most likely several terrorist groups working together in response to perceived injustices suffered by Muslims in India (Previous Report). Indian intelligence officials continue to report that militants from Harkat-ul Jihad al-Islami (HUJI), the Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) and the Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT) comprise the majority of the purported Indian Mujahideen group. The tactics and sophistication show HUJI and LeT traits, while SIMI likely provides logistical support.
On July 27, 2008, police conducted raids in Mumbai and Ahmadabad, detaining at least 30 people with suspected links to one of the three groups. However, this is a routine response after terrorist incidents in India and often leads to very few if any convictions.
Security Response
India typically raises security throughout the country after an attack such as that seen in Bangalore; however, this response did not prove enough to prevent the Ahmadabad bombings. While both cities were likely chosen for their prominent status in India’s growing economy, the Ahmadabad blasts immediately raised concerns that the high number of casualties would result in communal violence.
• In 2002, more than 1,000 people died when riots broke out between Hindus and Muslims in Gujarat. The unrest was caused after 59 Hindu pilgrims were killed in a train fire, which was originally blamed on Muslims in the state. Although the fire was eventually ruled accidental, most of those killed in the ensuing violence were Muslims.
The Indian Mujahideen email referenced the 2002 incident, claiming the Ahmadabad attacks were revenge for the deaths and ill treatment of thousands of Muslims. The decision to launch attacks in the capitals of the states of Gujarat and Karnataka is also noteworthy, since the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) rules both states.
Stagnant Outlook
Although Indian security forces currently claim to have several leads, they are unlikely to successfully capture the culprits of the Bangalore and Ahmadabad blasts. Security will likely remain elevated for the near to mid-term in urban centers across the country. While this tactic previously deterred insurgents from launching additional attacks elsewhere in India, the success of the Ahmadabad bombings indicates terrorists are becoming bolder and may strike again soon. We maintain that serial bombings on soft targets such as crowded markets, mosques and public transit remain likely for the long-term.
While the possibility of heightened ethnic tensions exists, in the immediate aftermath of the bombings residents did not demonstrate the level of anger and outrage seen during the 2002 riots. Further, increased paramilitary presence throughout Ahmadabad will likely discourage civil unrest for the near-term.
