Highlights
– Russian media reports the country may place nuclear bombers in Cuba
– Russian defense leaders deny the rumor, while Cuba remains silent
– Though likely feeling pressure over the US’s desired missile shield in Europe, Russia is unlikely to establish presence in Cuba in near to mid-term
After reports over Russia possibly placing nuclear bombers in Cuba surfaced last week, both Russian and Cuban officials have denied any knowledge of the allegation. The statements brings to mind a situation reminiscent of the 1962 standoff between the United States and Russia over the discovery of Russian nuclear weapons on the Caribbean island.
Russia is facing increasing pressure over the ongoing negotiations by the United States (US) in eastern Europe to establish a missile defense system, and the rumors of a Cuban presence likely erupted from its desire to gain leverage over the United States’ growing military action in its region.
While Russia has been building stronger relations throughout Latin America in recent years, especially through its arms sales, Russia will likely not completely jeopardize its relationship with the United States by establishing any type of permanent presence within Cuba in the near to mid-term.
Details and Denials
Russian news sources originally broke a story on July 21, 2008, alleging the Defense Ministry’s desire to base nuclear-capable bombers in Cuba. The newspaper Izvestia included a quote from an anonymous “top air force official” that nuclear-ready bombers could be placed in Cuba, as well as possibly Venezuela and Algeria, to counter US proposals to establish portions of a missile defense system in eastern European nations. The reports indicated that political discussions have already taken place over placing long-range strategic aircraft (referring to long-range nuclear capable bombers) in Cuba.
The military source allegedly stated that crews of Tu-160 Blackjack and Tu-95MS Bear strategic bombers recently visited Cuba, and conducted inspections of a site and facilities that may be used as a stopover for Russian bombers. Russia resumed bomber patrol flights over the Pacific, Atlantic and Artic oceans in August 2008, following an order signed by former President Vladimir Putin. The country has also been considering the possibility of establishing “jump-up” bases in various regions to support these missions in refueling and maintenance capacities. The use of these landing sites throughout Latin America could make a Russian military air presence near the US border nearly permanent, eliminating time constraints by having Cuba host Russian Il-78 aerial tankers capable of providing the bombers with mid-air refueling as well.
If true, the establishment of refueling bases, will likely remain a long-term goal, though US officials fear the bombers may be used in the short-term for reconnaissance over US regions. Russian lost its largest SIGNIT site abroad, as well as its formal presence in the Latin America, after its electronic and surveillance base near Havana at Torrens, also known as the Lourdes facility, was shut down in October 2001.
However, Russian officials have adamantly denied any such plan exists, with the Russian Defense Minister stating on July 24, 2008 that the allegation is “disinformation” and a “media hoax.” Cuban authorities have been even coyer, refusing to comment on the speculation. Former President Fidel Castro voiced his support for his brother’s decision to remain quiet. Fidel stated in his online column on July 23, 2008, that Raul was right to maintain a “dignified quiet,” stating that Cuba does not have any responsibility to the US to confirm or deny such reports.
Strategic Thinking
Russia remains concerned over a US-proposed missile system, and may have leaked this story in attempts to heighten the US’s awareness at its ability to pose a retaliatory threat. While US has repeatedly stated that the system, intended to be positioned in the Czech Republic and Poland will pose no threat to Russia, the nation has repeatedly denounced any negotiations over its erection.
While Cuba and Russia retained a close relationship in the past, it is unlikely that Russia will place active bombers on the island in the near-term, and risk an open political and diplomatic, escalating to possible military, confrontation with the United States. The US will likely not be intimidated by the use of long-range bombers, as US stopped conducting strategic bomber patrols using the same equipment almost two decades ago. Additionally, the establishment and upkeep of the “jump-off bases,” in Cuba and else where, would require large defense resources that Russian budget currently lacks the funding to provide.
Furthermore, Cuba risks any budding relationship with the US if it agrees to Russia’s alleged military expansion. Since Raul Castro’s coming to power in February 2008, he has begun to lift certain restrictions within Cuba, and has repeatedly indicated that he would be willing to discuss the US-Cuban relationship in equal talks with the next US president after US elections in November 2008 (Previous Report).
