Editor’s Note: This report is the final installment of a four-part assessment of al-Qaeda in Yemen (AQY). The assessment will focus on targeting strategies, group dynamics, counter-offensive efforts, and future implications.
Highlights
– Terrorist attacks and suicide bomber operations will continue in Yemen in the near to mid-term
– Recent AQY tactics and strategies mirror the al-Qaeda Organization in the Islamic Maghreb (AOIM), and will likely continue in the interim
– AQY’s media capabilities continues to improve, further contributing to the increase in AQY militants
Al-Qaeda in Yemen (AQY) continues to evolve and has integrated a number of techniques and strategies that have proven effective for other al-Qaeda groups, such as the al-Qaeda Organization in the Islamic Maghreb (AOIM). Some of these techniques include: suicide-bomber tactics, sophisticated media capabilities, and an overarching umbrella-group network responsible for logistical and financial support. AQY has begun to incorporate these techniques over the last six months, and will continue to develop it’s capabilities and strategies in the near to mid-term.
Similar Suicide-Bomber Tactics
The use of suicide attacks and car bombs may become an increasingly prominent occurrence in Yemen, as evidenced by AQY’s most recent attack on July 25, 2008, which used both techniques. AQY militants attempted to enter the police headquarters complex in Yemen’s Hadramout providence, however the driver was stopped at the gate, where the car exploded killing one police officer and injuring 18 others . In Algeria, AOIM has carried out a number of near identical attacks in recent months (Terrorist Attack and Terrorist Attack), most likely encouraging AQY’s recent strikes.
Recent actions by AQY militants indicate the growing attack capabilities of the organization (Previous Report). Using suicide attack tactics illustrates the group’s willingness to expand its methods, and ability to attract willing participants. It also appears the group is motivated to learn from other more experienced, well-established groups, such as AOIM.
Sophisticated Media Capabilities
As AQY’s attacks continue to improve, similar developments are underway in regard’s to the group’s media capabilities. In the latest attack the group issued a claim of responsibility at the time of the attack, similar to what we have seen with more sophisticated groups, such as AOIM, al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), or al-Qaeda central in Afghanistan. Along with the claim, a high-definition photograph of the suicide bomber and a fellow militant, featured with machine guns and ammunition in front of a banner with the group’s logo, was included in the posting on a popular jihadist website.
High-quality online statements, which promptly claim responsibility for the attacks, are usually an indicator of a group’s level of expanding capabilities and are usually used as propaganda to showcase a group’s sophistication and success (Previous Report). AQY will continue to use such tactics to attract more fighters and heighten it’s reputation in the near to mid-term.
Forecast: Successful Attacks Increase in Near Term
Although the long-term threat of AQY may be unclear, AQY has demonstrated its capability to perpetrate bold attacks against the Yemeni government, Western assets, business interests, and travelers in Yemen. As the group continues to recruit more fighters, especially those returning from Iraq, it is likely that the AQY threat will continue to increase in the long-term.
However, in the interim, the group will continue to carry out sophisticated suicide and terrorist attacks mirroring the AOIM and other al-Qaeda linked groups. The Yemeni group will continue to develop its techniques and strategies from al-Qaeda central and other senior al-Qaeda groups in the near to mid-term.