Highlights
– International Criminal Court charges Sudanese President of war crimes, crimes against humanity, and crimes of genocide
– Prosecution of standing President could endanger ongoing peace efforts
– Potential prosecution could threaten traditional notions of sovereignty
On July 14, 2008, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, prosecutor for the International Criminal Court (ICC), applied for a warrant of arrest against Omar Hassan Ahmad al-Bashir (Bashir), the President of Sudan. The pending warrant, the first of its kind against a standing head of state, is awaiting approval by a panel of ICC judges. Bashir has been charged with crimes of genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes for his conduct in the Darfur region from 2002 to the present. The conflict has killed over 300,000 people and has displaced well over 2,000,000 from their homes due to a combination of rape, violence, and intentional starvation.
The ICC began its investigation following the passage of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution 1593 in 2005, which referred “the situation prevailing in Darfur since 1 July 2002 to the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court.” The resulting investigation has determined that Bashir, through the actions of his security services and various proxies, “decided and set out to destroy in part the Fur, Masalit, and Zaghawa groups, on account of their ethnicity.” Pursuant to resolution 1593, the ICC has previously indicted senior Janjaweed leader Ali Kushayb, and the former Minister of State for the Interior of the Government of Sudan, Ahmad Muhammad Harun, on 51 counts of crimes against humanity and war crimes.
Sudanese Response
Following the indictment of Bashir, the Sudanese government adamantly declared the ICC has no jurisdiction in the matter, as Sudan is not a signatory to the Rome Statute, which created the organization. Additionally, Sudan threatened members of the international community operating in Sudan, including various humanitarian aid workers and the joint African Union – United Nations peacekeeping operation (UNAMID), and labeled them as elements of foreign intelligence agencies.
• Violence against UNAMID forces have escalated as a result of the anticipated announcement of charges against Bashir resulting in the death of seven peacekeepers and the wounding of 22 others.
In addition to the fear of retaliatory strikes, international observers fear that long-term efforts at securing a peace agreement in Darfur may be damaged by these charges. Bashir and elements of the Sudanese government will be far less inclined to participate in a process that could potentially result in their eventual arrest and prosecution. Other observers however, have pointed out that the Sudanese government has never approached the peace process honestly and that charges from the ICC could provoke the government to reform its policies.
International Response
The international community’s response to the ICC’s charges has been mixed. The majority of developed Western countries have welcomed the charges against Bashir while countries such as Russia, China, and the United States have been less enthusiastic.
• The Chinese government has been extremely vocal in its apprehension with the ICC charges labeling the indictment as “pouring gasoline onto a fire.”
• The Russian government has expressed its concern and has suggested that Security Council members should play a more active role in targeting prosecutions.
• The United States position is more nuanced as it vehemently opposes the Bashir administration and has labeled its activities as genocidal, yet the American response has remained somewhat muted due to its position on the ICC as a whole.
• The Arab League has strongly supported Bashir and the Sudanese government by condemning the ICC, and has helped generate an as yet unannounced plan to stall the warrant process.
Outlook
The ramifications of the application for a warrant against Bashir will continue to develop for sometime. Short-term consequences could potentially include increased regional instability and violence. This violence could be directed against members of the international community in the Darfur Region, including UNAMID and humanitarian aid providers due to their perceived collusion with the ICC and other foreign elements.
Long-term implications include a potential breakdown of peace making efforts within Darfur. If a warrant is issued for his arrest, Bashir will more than likely abandon efforts at a peaceful settlement due to the absence of any personal incentives. Additionally, the warrant could destabilize the planned national elections scheduled to occur for the first time in July 2009. If this is postponed or disrupted, relations with the Government of South Sudan could be greatly strained and could potentially threaten the current Government of National Unity.
