Highlights
– Diplomatic sources claim Saudi Arabia offered Russia lucrative arms contracts if Moscow agrees to end its support for Iran
– There is speculation that regional and world powers are conducting behind-the- scenes bargaining over Iran’s nuclear program with possible arms trade-offs
– With Saudi Arabia looking to diversify its sources of arms, military relations between Riyadh and Moscow have the potential to grow
Diplomatic sources have revealed that Saudi Arabia has offered Russia US$2.4 billion in arms purchases in return for Moscow scaling back support for Iran’s nuclear program and military.
On July 16, 2008, the daily business news outlet Kommersant wrote, “The kingdom’s government advised Moscow to cut back its cooperation with Tehran, and in exchange it held out the prospect of profitable contracts with Saudi Arabia.” Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for Russian Prime Minister (PM) Vladimir Putin, immediately released a statement saying, “Any claims that military-technical cooperation between Russia and Saudi Arabia in any way linked to Russian-Iranian dialogue are in appropriate and do not correspond to reality.”
It is no secret that Saudi officials, including Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal, have expressed dismay towards Russia over dealings with Iran. However, it may be premature to declare that Saudi Arabia has embarked on a campaign of offering Russia lucrative arms contracts in return for Moscow ending support for Iran. Additionally, it is naïve to believe in the near-term that Russia is prepared to turn its back on Iran in the military and energy sectors.
Arms Deal
Citing sources in Russia’s defense industry, Kommersant reported that Saudi Arabia was ready to purchase at least 100 BMP-3 combat vehicles, Buk-M2E medium-range air defense systems, 150 T-90 tanks, and 160 Mi-17, M-26, and Mi-35 helicopters, putting the total value of the equipment at approximately US$2.4 billion.
The signing of an agreement on technical-military cooperation between Moscow and Riyadh on July 14,2008 came within the Kingdom’s plans to upgrade its armament systems and the military equipment with which the Saudi Army is being equipped.
While many Western countries have tried to win defense and other contracts from Saudi Arabia, firms from the United States and United Kingdom have secured the bulk of deals worth billions of dollars. Russia, with its rising oil income, has continued to attempt to increase its influence in the Middle East and seems to have found a potentially large market in Saudi Arabia, especially with Prince Bandar claiming that ties with Moscow have become strategic and relations in the economic, military, energy, and security fronts need to be strengthened.
The landmark deal between Saudi Arabia and Russia, in which specific details have yet to be released, on military cooperation follows months of what diplomats in Riyadh say was quiet diplomacy as Prince Bandar frequently visited Russia in secret. The secrecy of the meetings also raises speculation over the true nature and reasoning behind recent cooperation between the two countries in the military arena.
The Iranian Threat
Saudi Arabia and neighboring countries have expressed increasing concern over Iran’s plans to develop nuclear power. There is little doubt among leaders in the Arab world that a nuclear Iran would allow the Islamic Republic to wield a significant amount of influence in the region. To this end, fears persist that a nuclear Iran will have more influence over rival Muslim sects in the Arab world. Further, Iran’s military build-up and committed effort to acquire nuclear power has stoked fears of an arms race in the Middle East, which would add further instability to an already unstable part of the world.
Before the recent Saudi Arabia-Russia deal came to light, speculation abounded that world and regional powers were involved in behind-the-scenes bargaining over Iran’s nuclear program with possible trade-offs involving arms sales. However, despite warnings from Saudi Arabia and several countries in the West, Russia continues to engage in serious dialogue with Iran.
The Future of Russia-Saudi Arabia Relations
The recent signing of the agreement on the military cooperation between Russia and Saudi Arabia has developed the relationship to a new phase that is not only limited to coordinating political positions, but draws relations closer towards economic and military partnerships.
The enhancement in the relationship between the two countries comes at a time when Russia has been trying to increase its influence in the Middle East, constructing energy and military agreements with a range of countries in the region.
Despite Kommersant’s reports quoting unnamed sources regarding the latest military dealings between the countries, there is little other solid evidence to support claims that Saudi Arabia has offered Russia business in return for ending its support for Iran. However, Saudi Arabia has expressed on several occasions its dismay over Russian dealings with Iran, especially in Moscow’s efforts to modernize the Iranian military.
Any possible or potential efforts by Saudi Arabia to influence or deter its counterparts in Russia to end support for Iran are likely to fail. Despite intense pressure from Western countries, particularly the US, Russia has continued its dealings with Iran, in both the military and energy sectors.
However, even though Saudi Arabia has shown its dissatisfaction over the Russian-Iranian relationship, it is likely relations between Riyadh and Moscow will continue to strengthen in the mid to long-term, as the latest arms deal is an indicator of a possible long-term military relationship. Saudi Arabia’s readiness to diversify its sources of arms provides Russia with a new arms market that it hopes to gain access to in the long run. In the area of military cooperation, we anticipate the relationship between Russia and Saudi Arabia to develop further, as it provides strategic benefits to both countries.
