Highlights
– Malaysia’s opposition leader accused of sodomy for the second time in ten years
– Ruling government facing declining popularity due to ethnic tensions and rising fuel prices
– Political uncertainty likely for the long-term due to public apathy
Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim vowed to oust current Prime Minister (PM) Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, after a former aid accused Anwar of sodomy. Anwar claims the charges are an attempt by the government to “demonize and intimidate” him and stated plans to form a coalition opposition party capable of overtaking the ruling coalition by September 2008.
The sodomy charges come as PM Abdullah faces rapidly declining popularity. As we previously reported, early elections were called in March 2008 amidst growing ethnic tensions (Previous Report). The opposition Pakatan Rakyat made record gains, leaving Abdullah’s National Front coalition with only a minor majority after controlling 90 percent of parliamentary seats before the election.
Regardless of the outcome of Anwar’s trial, Abdullah and the National Front are likely to continue to face declining popularity for the long-term.
History Repeats Itself
Following a conviction on charges of sodomy and corruption, Anwar was deposed as deputy premier in 1998. He was subsequently thrown in prison for six years before the conviction was overturned; however, he was banned from holding public office until April 2008.
In June 2008, Anwar filed a police complaint over his treatment in custody during the 1998 conviction, claiming police severely beat him and fabricated key evidence in the case. As a result, PM Abdullah banned Malaysia’s police chief and the attorney general from the current investigation against Anwar. While this was most likely done in an attempt to quell speculation of corruption in Abdullah’s government, the move is unlikely to appease supports of Anwar. As Anwar’s lawyer stated, “This does not still address our concerns because it does not take much imagination to see how both the police chief and the AG could still direct operations even while not being involved.”
Abdullah’s Unpopularity
While PM Abdullah’s diminishing popularity has been apparent since the March 2008 elections, the recent rise in fuel prices have added pressure to his government. Gasoline prices increased by 41 percent in June 2008, pushing inflation in Malaysia to a 26-year high. Consumer prices are expected to rise another seven percent in July 2008, making it the fastest rate since January 1982.
Despite calls for the prime minister to step down this December, on July 10, 2008, Abdullah announced that he will not step down until June 2010. Although his term ends in 2013, the delayed resignation has done little to appease his political opponents.
Further, Abdullah stated that his deputy, Najib Razak, will take over as head of the United Malays National Organization (UMNO) following the PM’s resignation from office in 2010. Najib has also become embroiled in the recent charges brought against Anwar, initially denying that he ever met the defendant and later retracting his statement.
Outlook for the Prime Minister
In an attempt to gain supporters from parties outside the National Front coalition, PM Abdullah has held closed-door meetings with opposition leaders three times since general elections in March 2008. While the talks were allegedly to discuss ideological disagreements, a compromise is unlikely to be reached due to long standing suspicions of each other.
While it is still unclear if the recent charges against Anwar have been fabricated, public support is far below levels seen in 1998 when supporters staged large demonstrations. Civil unrest remains likely for the near to mid-term; however, public apathy will likely lead to continued political uncertainty for the long-term.
