Highlights
– Provincial elections postponed until December 22, 2008
– Opposition to bill linked to an attached bill calling for equal representation among sects on the provincial council of Kirkuk
– The Kirkuk provincial council bill will likely be detached in order to smooth the passage of the Provincial Elections Bill
On July 20, 2008, the Iraq Elections Authority proposed to delay provincial balloting until December 22, 2008. The move came on the heels of a Kurdish walkout ahead of parliamentary debate concerning the passage of the proposed Provincial Election Law (Previous Report). The committee’s decision to postpone the election was based on estimated time constraints to prepare for balloting after the proposed election legislation is passed into law, estimated by election officials to be three months.
However, considering sustained Kurdish opposition to the bill, it is possible the bill will not be passed as scheduled next week, further postponing the balloting date. On the other hand, the largest Sunni bloc, the Tawafiq, rejoined the Iraqi cabinet on July 20, 2008 with the appointment of six Tawafiq members, ending a nearly yearlong Sunni boycott. For the most part, Iraq experts agree that rushing the passage of provincial election legislation will produce illegitimate elections and future complications.
Finding the balance between the need to ensure the passage of workable legislation and fear of missing the opportunity to build a unified government will take considerable skill in the coming days in Iraq. Backdoor meetings will likely include the removal of the Kurdish power-sharing agreement and an attempt to confirm a date to hold the long postponed Kurdish referendum (Previous Report), while ensuring Sunni ministers that provincial elections will take place in a timely manner.
Kurdish Concerns
The Kurdish delegation walked out of Parliament on July 16, 2008 to avoid the passage of a power-sharing bill attached to the provincial elections legislation calling for the creation of a provincial council in Kirkuk in which Arab, Kurdish, and Turkmen residents will have equal representation. Kurdish leaders oppose the bill because its passage would give Arab and Turkmen leaders power disproportionate to their numbers.
Since the inception of the transitional Iraqi government, Kurdish ministers have fought to ensure the Kurdish semi-autonomous region maintains its right to limited autonomy. During the Saddam Hussein regime, the Kurdish population was oppressed and major cities such as oil production centers like Kirkuk, were forcibly “Arabized”. Maintaining Kurdish proportional representation in provincial governance in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region is, therefore, a key component of ensuring Kurdish participation in the Iraqi government.
Should the bill be passed and Kurdish leaders lose power on the provincial level, radical members of the Kurdish population will likely attempt to stir up speculation that the Arab population is once again seeking to oppress them.
Sunni Concerns
Sunni leaders see the holding of provincial elections as an opportunity to regain power on the local level in Sunni dominated provinces. With the inclusion of Sunni Awakening Council fighters, or Sahwa, and the election of six Sunni ministers to the Iraqi cabinet, Sunni leaders are increasingly confident in the non-sectarian nature of Iraqi Prime Minster (PM) Nouri al-Maliki’s leadership.
For the first time in almost a year, the Sunni bloc and the Shia-led government have reached agreements concerning the future role of Sunni leaders in the government and leaders are not anxious to lose political ground. The prospect of delayed provincial elections, therefore, is of great concern to the Sunni bloc.
Future Outlook
PM al-Maliki will likely propose the removal of the Kirkuk power-sharing bill as an attachment to the Provincial Elections bill. The Kirkuk power-sharing bill may later appear before parliament as a separate bill, but its chances of passing will be significantly lessened. In order to ensure parliament maintains its momentum, PM al-Maliki will continue to assert pressure on lawmakers to reach a consensus on districting.
Though it may require the postponement of talks surrounding the status of Kirkuk, parliament will likely pass a compromise version of today’s provincial elections bill in the near-term.
