Highlights
– Britain offers military assistance to Nigeria
– MEND ends cease-fire in response to British assistance, threatens attacks on British interests and citizens in Nigeria
– Bunkering continues to reduce Nigeria’s oil output
– Unrest in Niger Delta unlikely to be resolved in the long-term
On July 14, 2008, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown announced that Britain would formally offer to help Nigeria crack down on violence in the oil-rich Niger Delta region when Nigerian President Umaru Yar’Adua visits Britain. During the announcement, Brown stated that 1.5 million barrels of oil a day were lost to “criminal acts.” Brown also stated that the Niger Delta is “an important strategic area” for world oil supplies and the current situation there puts a substantial part of the world’s oil supplies at risk. In addition to British assistance, Brown urged the international community to help resolve the situation.
Britain’s offer follows comments made by Brown at last week’s Group of Eight (G8) summit, in which he urged the world to “safeguard oil supplies” while also working towards developing alternative fuel sources. In addition to Nigeria, Brown stated Iraqi oil fields would need increased international efforts to ensure their security. Britain’s initial offer of assistance to Nigeria will include military training.
Rebel Reaction and Likely Impact
In June 2008, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), the most prominent rebel group operating in Nigeria, called off its cease-fire in response to the British offer of assistance. The cease-fire was announced on June 23, 2008 in response to calls from tribal elders to allow for a period of calm ahead of peace talks scheduled for July 2008 between the federal government and the Niger Delta communities. Ahead of the cease-fire, MEND launched an attack on the Bonga offshore oil facility, its most sophisticated attack to date .
In addition to ending its cease-fire, MEND threatened to launch attacks against British interests and citizens in Nigeria if the British government follows through on its pledge to provide military assistance to the Nigerian armed forces. MEND also blamed Britain for causing much of the problems in Nigeria during Britain’s colonization of Nigeria, which ended in 1960.
Bunkering: Nigeria’s other threat
While the end of MEND’s cease-fire will likely result in an increase in attacks in the near-term, criminal elements continue to plague the Niger Delta region. Nigeria’s Joint Task Force (JTF), which focuses on security issues in the Niger Delta, arrested the MT Lina Panama, which had 150,000 tons of suspected stolen crude oil. The ship’s crew included 14 Filipinos and one Greek national, highlighting the international involvement in the theft of Nigerian oil, known as bunkering.
While the arrest of the vessel is a significant victory for the JTF, Nigeria’s navy remains under-funded and under-equipped. As such, without substantial investment in the Nigerian navy, as well as training and other assistance from the international community, bunkering will likely continue to account for between one quarter and one half of all lost oil output.
Outlook
As oil prices continue to rise, the international community will likely increase its support of oil producing countries facing instability. However, increased foreign presence will likely further increase instability, as most instability, especially in Nigeria, is due to local communities demanding greater compensation for the oil extracted from its territories. Until the Nigerian government decides to seriously address the concerns of community leaders and rebel groups such as MEND, instability will continue to plague the Niger Delta, resulting in an ongoing loss of at least 20 percent of potential oil output.
