Highlights
– Hamas threatens to withdraw its support for President Abbas
– Increased pressure on Fatah to open dialogue with Hamas
– Interim Arab security force recommended by acting Palestinian Authority Prime Minister
– Hamas-Fatah dialogue likely in the coming months, with a low likelihood of agreement by the end of 2008
As Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas met with Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC) in Syria on July 7, 2008, Hamas leaders prepared to release a statement threatening to withdraw their recognition of Abbas’ presidency. In its July 8, 2008 statement, Hamas leaders indicated their recognition of President Abbas would end in six months—the timing of which coincides with United States (US) President Bush’s deadline for an outline of the peace agreement between Israel and Palestine.
Hamas’ recognition of Abbas is not only a key ingredient for reconciliation between the two parties, but its removal could jeopardize the legitimacy of President Abbas. According to Hamas legislator in Gaza Faraj al-Ghoul, Hamas considers President Abbas’ term over in January. The group, therefore, intends to install Deputy Parliament Speaker Ahmed Bahar as interim president for 60 days and then call presidential elections.
Fatah officials, on the other hand, contend that President Abbas can stay in office until 2010, when Parliamentary elections are scheduled to take place. Should Fatah and Hamas fail to reach an agreement prior to the December 2008 deadline, Hamas will likely hold Presidential elections in Gaza, further solidifying the split between the two Palestinian Territories.
Hamas Increasing Pressure For Direct Negotiations
Angered by Fatah efforts to side-step Hamas’ leadership in Gaza, Hamas leaders reject President Abbas’ measures to secure PIJ and PFLP-GC assurances they will adhere to a ceasefire agreement with Israel. By threatening to withdraw its recognition of President Abbas, Hamas is indicating that it will not only force the PA to adhere to previously established presidential term limits but will also threaten its ability to reach a comprehensive peace agreement with Israel without Hamas’ participation.
Hamas is also angered by President Abbas’ refusal to not meet with Hamas leader in exile Khaled Mashaal during his trip to Syria, which it considers evidence it has succumbed to US pressure. Fatah, on the other hand, says it will not hold direct talks with Hamas until it relinquishes control of Gaza, as established in the Yemeni Initiative (Previous Report). Though both sides agreed to the terms of the Yemeni Initiative, Fatah declared its proposals should be implemented immediately, while Hamas said the proposals should be subject to further dialogue.
National Dialogue Proposals
Alongside the Yemeni Initiative, PA Prime Minister Salam Fayyad proposed, in a series of meetings with foreign Arab and Western ministers, the temporary deployment of an interim Arab security force in Gaza to smooth the reunification of Gaza and the West Bank. Prime Minister Fayyad recommends the security force be in place until Hamas and Fatah successfully reorganize their security apparatuses.
The proposal was well received by the Arab leaders in attendance with some indicating they might be willing to supply troops for an interim security force. The proposal would be discussed in either Egyptian sponsored talks or in Yemeni sponsored talks in Qatar. Neither side has agreed to attend either invitation for dialogue, with Hamas indicating it is only willing to approach the negotiating table without preconditions and Abbas maintaining he will not enter dialogue without Hamas first relinquishing Gaza.
Future Outlook
Nonetheless, with the December 2008 deadline for both an outline of the Israel-Palestine Peace Agreement and Hamas’ intended withdraw of recognition for President Abbas approaching, the two will likely be forced to soften their positions. Hamas recognizes that it has the least to lose should dialogue fail and will, therefore, be less open to compromise. Fatah and the PA, on the other hand, will prove incapable of delivering an independent Palestinian state without Gaza, making it more likely that President Abbas will agree to re-engage Hamas in Yemen-sponsored efforts.
Whether through Yemen or Egyptian mediators, the Hamas-Fatah track talks will take place in the coming months but are unlikely to yield a successful peace agreement before the year’s end. Abbas is under significant pressure from his Israeli counterparts to bring an end to rocket strikes into Israel, as well as pressure from his Palestinian counterparts to cease peace negotiations until Israel stops constructing settlements in the West Bank. Faced with the option of national dialogue on Hamas’ terms or the end of Israel-track peace negotiations, Abbas will likely work toward agreeing upon principles with Israel and leave it to Israel and the next PA President to reunite the West Bank and Gaza.
