Highlights
– Parliament passes electoral law necessary for 2009 national elections
– Full implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), including 2008 census, 2009 elections, and 2011 succession referendum necessary to maintain peace between North and South
– Without international pressure, ruling National Congress Party will likely attempt to delay full implementation of the CPA
On July 7, 2008 the Sudanese parliament passed a new electoral law, a requirement of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which also states the electoral law should have been in place by January 2006. Under the terms of the CPA, which ended a 21-year civil war between the North and the South, national elections must be held no later than 2009. The elections are to be followed by a 2011 succession referendum in South Sudan and a referendum in the oil rich province of Abyei on whether to be categorized as part of the North or the South, which would result in succession if the South approves the referendum.
The law passed on July 7, 2008 will also grant women 25 percent of the seats in the national assembly and create proportional representation. Quotas for political parties, equivalent to 15 percent of the seats, will also be established. The law enfranchises all Sudanese citizens over the age of 18 and requires electoral candidates to be over the age of 40 and have no criminal record. However, despite these positive steps, possible further delays are likely without continued international pressure to fully implement the CPA and conduct elections.
Ongoing Challenges
As with numerous other agreements signed by the ruling National Congress Party (NCP), the implementation of the CPA has progressed slowly due to multiple attempts by both sides to delay implementation of certain aspects unfavorable to one side. While both sides have obstructed implementation at various times, the NCP is primarily responsible for the majority of the delays.
The 2009 elections will likely be conducted before June 2009 when the rainy season starts and several areas of the country will be unreachable and travel within the region will remain difficult for several months. Prior to the elections, a national census must be held to determine representation for each district and the amount of eligible voters. Following a “pilot census” in April that was intended to determine potential problems, the full census will need to avoid a lack of funds, and other delays. The national census is currently scheduled for November 2008, which will coincide with the end of the rainy season in South Sudan.
In addition to the challenges conducting the census that have caused repeated delays, the lack of demarcated borders will also likely cause elevated tensions between the North and South. Additionally, the still unresolved issue of Abyei’s borders, due to the NCP’s refusal to implement the findings of the Abyei Boundaries Commission, will likely lead to intense debate between the two sides during the census process.
Outlook
The passage of the electoral law after over two years of delay and the recent agreement for both North and South troops to withdraw from Abyei following weeks of violence in the province are positive developments for North-South relations. However, the continued challenges in conducting the census, as well as holding free and fair elections will continue to require pressure from the African Union (AU) and the international community. Currently, the NCP is unlikely to work towards holding the elections on time, as it is unlikely they will continue to maintain their current level of power in free and fair elections.
The South views the full implementation of the CPA, including the census, the 2009 elections, and the 2011 succession referendum, as crucial to continued peace between the North and South. In the past eight months the temporary withdrawal from the government of national unity by the South due to delayed implementation of the CPA and the recent clashes in Abyei between North and South forces have brought the two sides close to renewed armed conflict. A significant delay in the key aspects of the CPA will further increase the likelihood that hostilities could reignite between the two sides. Renewed fighting would have a significant impact within Sudan and to the nine bordering countries.
In order to avoid a return to war between North and South, the international community will need to focus on pressuring both sides to implement the CPA fully on time. The international community’s current focus on the ongoing violence in Darfur must be broadened to include the situation throughout Sudan. Without a comprehensive approach to Sudan by the international community, the NCP will continue to use Darfur as a distraction from the North-South situation.
The United States, a primary supporter of the CPA, will need to provide incentives, both positive and negative, for the NCP to continue with implementation of the CPA. With the NCP unwilling and unable to fight a second front in the South in addition to its ongoing war in Darfur, full implementation of the CPA is in its best interest. While recent agreements on the electoral law and the withdrawal of forces from Abyei are positive steps between the North and South, the potential for renewed hostilities between the two sides will persist until the CPA is fully implemented and the 2011 referendum is held.
