Highlights
– MDC opposition leader Tsvangirai withdraws from presidential run-off elections
– International community unlikely to influence situation in Zimbabwe
– Mugabe will likely remain in power, resulting in continued economic hardship for the majority of Zimbabweans
Following weeks of state-sponsored violence against supporters of the Zimbabwean opposition Movement for a Democratic Change (MDC), MDC Presidential candidate Morgan Tsvangirai withdrew from the June 27, 2008 run-off elections on June 22, 2008. Tsvangirai withdrew claiming he did not want to put his supporters lives at risk of more attacks by supporters of the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF). Additionally, he stated the elections would not be free or fair.
Following the parliamentary and first round presidential victories by the MDC (Previous Report), the police, army, intelligence services, and ZANU-PF supporters unleashed a wave of violence against MDC members and its supporters. According to the MDC, at least 86 supporters have been killed and 200,000 have been displaced. Additionally, all MDC rallies were banned, television and print advertisements were refused, and several MDC leaders were detained, including Tsvangirai on several occasions.
Government Response
The Zimbabwe Election Committee (ZEC) has stated the run-off elections will continue as scheduled until Tsvangirai officially withdraws in writing. Additionally, the government has stated it doubts the MDC claims that it is withdrawing from the elections, accusing the MDC of using the withdrawal as a “ruse” to allow it to still contest in the June 27, 2008 run-off elections. Shortly after Tsvangirai withdrew from the elections, armed police officers raided the MDC headquarters and arrested numerous victims of political violence who had sough refuge from the violence. A military raid of Tsvangirai’s house on June 22, 2008 has resulted in Tsvangirai seeking protection at the Dutch embassy.
International Community Response
The international community, including the United States (US), the United Kingdom (UK), and Australia, has repeatedly denounced the state-sponsored violence. The UK and US have threatened to bring the issue of Zimbabwean violence to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). South African President Thabo Mbeki has attempted to negotiate talks between the two leaders, but has refrained from strongly criticizing Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe. However, Jacob Zuma, the head of South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC), has criticized the ZANU-PF and called for an end to the violence, though his influence is currently limited.
The African Union’s top diplomat announced that discussions amongst key African rulers were being held. Additionally, the SADC foreign ministers have called an emergency meeting in Luanda, Angola.
Outlook
Following his withdrawal from the elections, Tsvangirai has called for the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC), the southern African regional bloc, to urge the government to postpone the June 27, 2008 run-off elections.
Tsvangirai has stated he is ready to negotiate with the ZANU-PF if political violence is stopped. The MDC has called for the ZANU-PF’s militias to be disbanded. However, Mugabe has repeatedly stated in recent weeks that he would never allow the opposition to attain power, accusing the MDC of being puppets of the West.
The international community, lead by South Africa’s Mbeki, has repeatedly failed to effectively pressure Mugabe and his ZANU-PF to quell violence in recent weeks. It is unlikely, despite SADC and AU meetings and potential UNSC meetings, that the international community will be able to influence the events in Zimbabwe.
We expect limited violence against MDC supporters to continue in the run up to the June 27, 2008 run-off elections. The ZEC will likely declare Mugabe the winner of the run-off elections, giving him another five-year presidential term. Due to current inflation rates estimated to have reached nearly 315,000 percent, and continued high levels of unemployment, the economic situation under another fiver-year Mugabe presidency will continue to deteriorate. Additionally, ongoing suppression of the opposition and a persisting economic crisis, it is likely more Zimbabweans will continue to flee the country, with most likely to head to South Africa despite the recent wave of xenophobic violence that has occurred there (Previous Report).
