Highlights
– Shia opposition and al-Qaeda-linked jihadist are the greatest threats to security in Bahrain
– Shia opposition is an established threat and efficiently policed
– Anti-terror legislation enhanced the government’s ability to combat terrorism
– The likelihood of a terrorist attack in Bahrain remains moderate for the long term.
The small island country of Bahrain, host to the United States (US) Navy’s Fifth Fleet, is no stranger to political unrest. In the midst of weekly demonstrations staged by the government’s Shia opposition group, Al-Wefaq Parliamentary Bloc, and battling al-Qaeda-linked financing rings, the ruling al-Khalifa family is focused on maintaining security and economic diversification. In the past week, Bahrain made international news for the arrest of Bahraini al-Qaeda suspects, Bahrainis suspected of spying for Iran in Saudi Arabia, a ten thousand strong opposition protest, a senior Bahraini official’s insult of Bahrain’s top Shia cleric, the opening of a Bahrain Embassy in Iraq, and efforts to combat rising food inflation.
Despite the depth of Shia dissatisfaction with the ruling Sunni minority, the greatest single threat to Bahraini security originates from al-Qaeda-linked opposition to the government’s normalization of relations with the Iraqi government and close ties to the US. The government security forces, however, working diligently to combat al-Qaeda threats and the threat of terrorist attack in the near term remains low.
Al-Wefaq Opposition
The Shia opposition group, Al-Wefaq, represents a majority of Bahrain’s population but holds only 17 out of the 40 seats in Parliament. Bahraini Shia argue they are oppressed by the ruling Sunni minority whose private companies have seized 97 percent of Bahraini coastline for financial exploitation, leaving only three percent in public hands. Shia activists also protest Shia exclusion from senior positions in the defense and internal security forces, as well as Sunni preference for sensitive government positions and managerial positions in the civil service.
The alleged beating death of a young man at the hands of Bahraini Special Security Forces in December 2007 sparked nightly riots in Shia villages, leading to the arrest of 15 Shia activists. The men testified at their arraignment they were tortured and sexually assaulted during the tenure in prison; the Bahraini security forces denied ill treatment of the prisoners.
As a result, riots and anti-government demonstrations have been commonplace in Bahrain. Though some protests are violent in nature, the Bahraini security forces efficiently suppress uprisings and there is little real threat to the ruling family. Reports of growing Iranian influence among the Shia population are denied by al-Wefaq officials and US government sources have no knowledge of increased Iranian Revolutionary Guard presence (IRG).
Al-Qaeda Threat
As Gulf nations normalize their relations with the Iraqi government, the threat of an al-Qaeda-linked retaliation increases. In recent weeks, US and British intelligence agencies noted a marked increase in jihadist presence in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. This increase is being linked to the states’ enhanced anti-terrorism measures and efforts to disrupt al-Qaeda financing networks, as well as their establishment of embassies in Iraq.
Though Bahrain enacted a round of strong anti-terror laws, the island country’s position on the waterways bordering Saudi Arabia and Iran and divisive demography puts the country at risk. Like Jordan and Qatar, Bahrain is a major military ally of the US Armed Forces and a primary staging ground for any future US naval operations in the Gulf. Bahrain is also known for its nightlife and comparatively lax moral code. Saudis and foreign businessmen living in Saudi Arabia flock to Bahraini nightclubs over the weekends; increasing the likelihood of jihadist targeting.
Outlook
Sectarian based tension is not new to Bahrain and posses no great threat to the ruling government at this time. For now, Bahraini security forces have proven themselves capable of maintaining security despite the size and determination of Shia rioters. While not a permanent solution, the government’s security apparatuses maintain a moderate to low threat level from the Shia opposition in the mid-term.
The threat from al-Qaeda-linked jihadist, however, is more difficult to monitor. Bahrain’s political and military alliances and increasingly secular image enhance the country’s position as a high profile target. New terror legislation and the enhanced role of the Bahraini security forces help to weaken the threat, but the threat of attack nonetheless remains relatively high.
