Editor’s Note: This report is the fourth installment of a four-part assessment of the Taliban. The assessment will focus on the Taliban ideology, tactics, funding, and future outlook.
Highlights
– Kandahar prison breakout indicates sophisticated Taliban capabilities
– NATO Commander reports increased support not enough
– Taliban safe havens inside Pakistan pose long-term threat to Afghanistan
On June 13, 2008, an estimated 1,000 prisoners broke out of the largest prison in Kandahar province, after Taliban suicide bombers knocked down the prison gate and gunmen killed at least 15 guards . Despite recent North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) improvements throughout Afghanistan, the sophisticated level of the attack, only 30 kilometers from the main international base at Kandahar airfield, indicates the continued strength of the insurgency.
A report released by RAND, a United States (US) based think tank, outlined the greatest challenges to NATO and US troops in Afghanistan, most significantly pointing to Taliban safe havens located in Pakistan’s tribal areas. RAND claimed that without Pakistan’s support in ousting the Taliban from the Afghan-Pakistan border, coalition forces cannot end the insurgency in the near to mid-term.
Although NATO countries increased support for the conflict in Afghanistan, the necessary manpower needed for training and equipping Afghan troops is unlikely to be fulfilled in the near-term. Further, Afghan troops continue to display the inability to effectively control the country without substantial help from coalition troops, indicating the long-term need for NATO troops in Afghanistan.
Prison Breakout Planned for Months
Taliban spokesman, Yousuf Ahmadi, called news source Agence-France Press to claim responsibility for the June 13, 2008 prison breakout. Ahmadi stated that the attack involved 30 rebels, including two suicide bombers and gunmen riding on motorcycles that entered the prison and killed the security guards. Vehicles waited outside the prison, providing a quick escape for the prisoners. The Taliban planned the attack at least two months earlier as part of a militant operation known as Ibrat, or lesson, which the insurgents declared in January 2008.
NATO and Afghan authorities released conflicting reports of the number of escapees with figures varying from 850 to over 1,100; however, both agreed that about 400 of the escaped prisoners had strong links to the Taliban. After the breakout was reported, Canadian soldiers based at the Kandahar airfield took 40 minutes to reach the prison by which time nearly all the inmates had escaped into neighboring districts, some moving across the border into Pakistan.
Increased NATO Support Not Enough
The attack on the prison came only one day after donor nations pledged US$20 billion to rebuild Afghanistan. In addition to US$1.2 billion, the United Kingdom (UK) announced an increase of over 200 specialized troops in southern Helmand province to help train Afghan security forces. However, US Army General Dan McNeill, the recently returned Commander of NATO’s International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), stated in a Pentagon briefing that troop levels remain far below what is needed to combat the insurgency. Specifically, additional troops are needed to train Afghan soldiers and policemen, who are increasingly targeted in Taliban attacks.
Pakistan Safe Haven
General McNeill also noted the 50 percent increase of attacks in April 2008 from one year earlier in eastern Afghanistan, due to Taliban militants’ crossing over from Pakistan. He emphasized that, “There has to be pressure on the insurgents from both sides of the border” in order to successfully combat the insurgency.
The previously mentioned RAND report, published on June 9, 2008, claimed that active and former officials from Pakistan’s intelligence service and the Frontier Corps provide direct assistance to Taliban insurgents. RAND warned of “crippling long-term consequences” for coalition forces in Afghanistan if the Taliban safe havens in Pakistan are not eliminated.
On June 15, 2008, Afghan President Hamid Karzai issued a statement threatening to cross into Pakistan to attack Taliban rebels, most likely in response to pressure from donor countries after the increase in aid three days earlier. Pakistani officials denied the claims that their country was helping insurgents and accused Karzai of threatening to harm relations between the two countries. Pakistani Prime Minister (PM) Yousef Gilani asserted, “We will neither interfere in the internal affairs of any country, nor will we allow anyone to interfere in our affairs.”
Future of the Insurgency
Despite PM Gilani’s claim that Pakistani officials do not provide support to Taliban insurgents, most of the freed Taliban prisoners fled to Pakistan as well as neighboring Helmand province, where they were able to regroup. Within days, an estimated 500 Taliban fighters moved into Kandahar City, posing a renewed threat to coalition troops who were forced to redeploy to the previously secure area.
President Karzai most likely threatened an attack inside Pakistan to pressure PM Gilani’s government to end ongoing peace negotiations with militants along the Afghan border (Previous Report). Nevertheless, Afghan troops are unlikely to follow through on the threat and attacks within Pakistan’s borders will continue to be carried out through US aerial strikes.
While safe havens remain along the Pakistani border, Taliban militants will have the ability to launch well-planned attacks in key locations inside Afghanistan. As such we assess that the Taliban insurgency will likely continue for the mid to long-term.
