Highlights
– Staple food prices continue to rise, creating more unrest in Egypt
– Government pushes new family planning campaign to limit fertility rates
– Rising prices, stagnant wages, and inadequate distribution systems coupled with an increasing population will likely create severe civil unrest in the near to midterm
Overpopulation has always been a major concern for Egypt, as it is the 16th most populous country in the world, and the most populous Middle Eastern nation, according to 2008 estimates in the Central Intelligence Agency’s (CIA) World Factbook. In recent months, however, Egypt’s growing population crisis has become more pertinent, as rising food prices and stagnant minimum wages has led to major civil unrest. After several attempts to appease growing unrest from bread prices, the government has decided to take a different approach, targeting a major source of the problem – population control. As the government prepares to launch a new family planning campaign, unrest will likely continue in the near to mid term.
Trial and Error Leads to Family Plan
President Hosni Mubarak has implemented a number of short term “solutions” to the rising bread costs in Egypt. Some of these initiatives include: ceasing rice and cement exports for six months, ordering the army to bake more bread, using foreign currency reserves to buy additional wheat from the international market, and adding 15 million new names to the list of those receiving cheap rations of cooking oil, sugar, and rice (Previous Report). The government has opened at least ten new large bakeries in Cairo and established approximately 500 kiosks to sell less expensive bread to the public since April 2008.
Unfortunately, however, the government’s plan to curb unrest was not as successful as was hoped. At least ten Egyptians have died in incidents at bread lines this year (Civil Unrest). The most recent incident occurred on June 14, 2008, when thousands of people in Burulus burned tires and battled police to demonstrate against current conditions (Civil Unrest).
Due to the current social environment in Egypt, Mubarak has pushed for a more long-term solution, targeting Egypt’s population growth. Egypt currently has 81 million people, which is estimated to double by the year 2050 at current growth rates. Mubarak’s plan, however, aims to limit the number of children families give birth to in Egypt, using the slogan: “Two children per family – a chance for a better life.”
Health Minister Hatem al-Gabali announced on June 10, 2008 that Mubarak’s government has invested US$80 million in the “new family plan,” hoping that it will in fact curb fertility rates and make life in Egypt more affordable. According to estimated rates in the CIA World Factbook for 2008, Egypt’s fertility rate is currently 2.7 children born per woman, which places it 88th among nations. Whereas Mubarak’s previous attempts to curb unrest failed to yield the desired response, the government is hopeful that if Egyptians follow the new plan, a more enjoyable life will follow thereafter.
Forecast: More Unrest to Follow in the Interim
Egyptian authorities believe one way to effectively combat Egypt’s long-term population crisis, adding to ongoing unrest, is to promote the concept of smaller families. However, this is not a simple request, especially from a society that sees offspring as a factor of wellbeing and wealth. In the interim, however, civil unrest will likely continue, as no fixed solution has been made to bring down the price of bread and other staple goods. As the government continues to combat Egypt’s long-term population crisis, it is possible unrest will turn violent in the near to mid-term.
