Highlights
– The nomination of a new Air Force Chief of Staff will lead to changes in goals and strategy
– Changes in the Air Force may affect production of the advanced F-22 fighter jet
– In the near term to mid-term, the Air Force will likely put more emphasis on unmanned and surveillance aircraft
On June 5, 2008, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates accepted the force resignations of Air Force Secretary Michael Wynne and Chief of Staff, General Michael Moseley. Gates announced that the forced resignations were the result of a loss of confidence in the service’s ability to handle nuclear weapons after two embarrassing incidents last year.
In August 2007, a B-52 bomber flew from Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota to Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana mistakenly armed with nuclear cruise missiles. Also, in March 2008, United States officials discovered that the Air Force, along with another Defense agency, had accidentally sent four high-tech electrical nose cone fuses for Minuteman nuclear warheads instead of helicopter batteries to Taiwan. The mistake was discovered more than a year and a half after the shipment.
While Secretary of Defense Gates claims the two incidents were the primary reasons for the forced resignations, the events capped a period of turbulence between the Air Force and the Pentagon and Congress over several broader issues, including acquisition, contracting, and strategy.
Contracting Issues
The forced resignation of two top officials in the Air Force will have a ripple affect across the defense industry, especially in the contracting sphere. Secretary Gates is rumored to advocate cutting a joint project by the British company Rolls-Royce and General Electric (GE) to supply an alternate engine for the F35, or Joint Strike Fighter (JSF). The company Pratt & Whitney was initially given the contract to build the F35’s engine, but after intense lobbying for the United Kingdom, an alternate was added to the program. With the latest firings, the Rolls-Royce contract looks much more vulnerable, as questions may be asked about the need for an alternative engine in an already over-budget project.
The largest Air Force procurement project at present is the US$40 billion contract to build 179 refueling tanks, which the European Aeronautic Defense and Space Company (EADS) won earlier this year. General Moseley was regarded as the champion of the tanker project and his departure puts the entire project at risk, as Boeing has stepped up its opposition to awarding the contract to the owner of Airbus. With Moseley gone, the Pentagon may choose to re-compete the contract to keep Boeing’s backers in Congress pleased.
The Future of Next-Generation Fighter Aircraft
The US Air Force has been criticized by some for continuing to lobby Congress for advanced fighter aircraft, while giving short shrift to the surveillance missions that commanders in Iraq and Afghanistan claim should be its top priority. However, determining the future of the advanced F-22 Raptor has caused tensions through the Air Force and larger defense community.
With the shake-up in the Air Force’s leadership, veteran pilots have pressed for answers about the future of the F-22, which the Air Force regards as crucial to controlling the skies. Secretary Gates has declared his decision to continue the F-22 production line, but to allocate sufficient money to continue buying more models for the airplane through the Bush administration and into the next, largely keeping product open-ended to permit the next president to decide on the proper number and kind of new fighters.
Secretary Gates’s apathy towards the F-22 may provide the Europeans with a unique opportunity. If the F-22 assembly is shut down or severely limited, the Eurofighter Typhoon would become the most advanced combat jet in production, giving it a key marketing edge. Likewise, if the countries that are currently lobbying for the F-22’s realize that the advanced fighter jet is in jeopardy, they may turn to the Typhoon and other military aircraft/weapons from European defense companies.
However, in the near-term, the production of the advanced F-22 will be maintained, but this could change depending on who is elected the next president. However, if the F-22 is discontinued, it would likely face serious opposition from Air Force officials and top military leaders, as the aircraft is seen as vital in a potential conventional conflict with countries like North Korea, Iran, and China.
The Future of the Air Force
While the US Air Force continues to promote its advanced fighter aircraft and large bomber fleet, Secretary Gates and others within the military community want to see all the services increase emphasis on unmanned aircraft. The Air Force has doubled the number of remotely piloted hunter-killer vehicles over Iraq and Afghanistan since 2007, but Gates supports an even more aggressive overhaul.
It is clear Gates has become upset over the Air Force’s failure to provide more unmanned drones to funnel additional intelligence to US troops fighting low-intensity conflicts and is considered one of the primary reasons for the Air Force shake-up in early June.
For the most part, senior Air Force officers do not challenge Gates’s notion that guerrilla warfare and counterinsurgency, central to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, will remain a core focus in the mid to long-term. However, they also argue that the US must stay prepared for a more traditional class of potential adversaries, where the US would become entrenched in a conventional war. Without control over the skies through advanced fighter aircraft, the US would have serious trouble achieving military superiority. The Air Force is determined to keep its budget and maintain its position as an equal service to the Army, Marines, and Navy, and simply does not want to be perceived as a support service.
In the near-term, supporting ground forces in Iraq and Afghanistan will be the primary goal, which for the Air Force ultimately means that the service will have to focus on unmanned aircraft and surveillance aircraft, rather than the traditional high-powered advanced fighter jets and bombers. For the foreseeable future, low-intensity conflict is expected to be more frequent, largely forcing the Air Force into an aggressive overall in strategy and thinking.
