Highlights
– As peace talks stall, Uganda, Southern Somalia and Democratic Republic of Congo agree to conduct joint missions against the LRA if fighting resumes, likely with assistance from MONUC
– LRA kidnappings and attacks suggest the group is rearming and preparing for renewed conflict
– Renewed hostilities would likely result in high military and civilian death tolls in the near-term and should be avoided to allow more time for peace talks
On June 3, 2008, Uganda, Southern Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) agreed to jointly fight Joseph Kony’s Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) in the event peace talks collapse. As previously stated, negotiators from the Ugandan government, the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS), and the LRA reached a landmark agreement in February 2008 that would allow for Kony to avoid trial in the Hague for war crimes charges brought against him by the International Criminal Court (ICC) by allowing for a special Ugandan court to try Kony and other top LRA members (Previous Report). However, in the four months since the agreement was reached an increase in LRA abductions of children and LRA attacks has plagued the region. Additionally, on at least two separate occasions, Kony failed to appear and sign the final peace agreement. A return to war appears increasingly likely, with both sides preparing for renewed conflict. If the peace process fails, regional instability will likely increase in the near-term.
Cease-Fire at Risk
The LRA began its war with the Ugandan government in 1987. Since then, the 21-year war has resulted in an estimated 20,000 killed and two million internally displaced persons (IDPs). Currently, it is believed the LRA maintains bases in the Central African Republic (CAR) in addition to its main base in the Garamba National Park in DRC. In recent months, the group has abducted hundreds of children; a tactic the group has previously used to augment its ranks with child soldiers.
While the nearly two-year cease-fire, negotiated by the GoSS, has led to unprecedented levels of peace and stability in northern Uganda prior to the LRA’s resurgent campaign of violence, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has grown increasingly impatient with the slow pace of negotiations. To this end, Museveni has grown increasingly irritated due to fears that the LRA is using the peace process to buy it time to rearm. Reports indicate that at least 1,000 people, largely children, have been added to the ranks of approximately 600 LRA rebels. Additional reports indicate Chadian rebels have given the LRA supplies of weapons in addition to the weapons caches the LRA already possess.
However, lead LRA negotiator James Obita has urged further patience. Obita urged more time for Kony to “tell the world what his problem with the peace deal is.” Obita also stated that there is still a chance Kony could sign the peace agreement.
Further increasingly the likelihood of renewed armed conflict, the newly appointed ICC registrar, Silvana Arbia, has reaffirmed that Kony would be arrested at all costs. Stating that even if Uganda and the LRA reached an agreement in which Kony would be tried in a Ugandan court the ICC would not drop its charges, Arbia’s hard-line approach to Kony, is likely to have influenced Kony to remain secluded in Garamba National Park and is a serious impediment to peace in northern Uganda.
Increasing Tensions
On June 4 and 5, 2008 more than 20 people, including soldiers from the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) (the GoSS’ armed forces) and civilians, were killed in LRA attacks in Southern Sudan near the border with DRC. The attacks occurred in the villages of Nabanga and Yamba, and included an attack against an SPLA base. Following the attack, the GoSS announced that it was suspending its mediation of the peace process between the LRA and the Ugandan government. The attack is likely an attempt to raid the SPLA base for food and weapons.
Outlook
Uganda, Southern Sudan, DRC, and the UN Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (MONUC) are reportedly planning joint operations against the LRA. However, ongoing tensions between Uganda and DRC, combined with DRC’s own security situations in North Kivu with General Laurent Nkuda’s forces and the ongoing presence of Rwandan rebels responsible for the 1994 Rwandan genocide in eastern DRC, make it unlikely the DRC would be willing or able to provide many troops towards fighting the LRA. MONUC forces also dealing with the various destabilizing factors in DRC would be unable to provide a large amount of troops. Additionally, while Southern Sudan has recently experienced a series of LRA attacks, the SPLA remains concerned about the security situation in the oil-rich province of Abyei. With tensions between Khartoum and Juba remaining high, the SPLA will be limited in the amount of troops it can dedicate to fighting the LRA.
Beyond the questionable ability of the three countries and MONUC to assemble a united force to combat the LRA, we continue to believe there is no military solution to the situation. The LRA has managed to survive 21 years of war and Kony has remained free despite countless efforts to capture or kill him. Due to the LRA’s expansive area of operations any effort to militarily defeat the LRA will require a level of cooperation and an amount of forces most likely beyond the capacities of Uganda, Southern Sudan, DRC, and MONUC. Furthermore, an assault on the LRA will almost surely result in attacks on civilians in the aforementioned countries and possibly CAR.
We believe the best way forward would be for continued peace talks to resume. The UN Security Council should use its ability to suspend ICC indictments one year at a time as leverage in urging Kony to sign the peace agreement he failed to sign. While the threat of force is a necessary for leverage in the peace talks, we believe the talks should be given more time. If this important opportunity to create a lasting regional peace fails, the region will likely face increased instability in the near to mid-term.
