Editor’s Note: This report is the third installment of a four-part assessment of the Taliban. The assessment will focus on the Taliban’s ideology, tactics, funding, and future outlook.
Highlights
– At least 40 percent of Taliban funding comes from opium
– Coalition poppy eradication teams anger poor Afghans, who turn to the Taliban for economic support and security
– Wheat may replace poppy for some farmers; however, opium will likely remain the primary source of Taliban funding for the near to mid-term
Taliban leaders do not reveal where they receive their funding; however, numerous reports indicate that a large portion of Taliban members reap huge economic benefits from the thriving Afghan poppy production. Initially, the Taliban prohibited the production and use of opium in Afghanistan, citing the Islamic belief that Muslims cannot consume intoxicants. Nevertheless, the Taliban soon realized the economic rewards of the illegal crop and began to use opium production for their benefit.
Afghanistan produces more than 90 percent of the world’s illegal opium today. In 2007 alone, the country’s drug trade was a US$4 billion business, the majority produced in the Taliban strongholds of Kandahar and Helmand provinces. This immense poppy trade poses one of the greatest challenges to the United States (US) and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) troops, as they struggle to win over a population heavily dependent on the profitable crop.
Poppy production in Afghanistan will remain a significant challenge in the near to mid-term; however, new strategies by coalition forces in addition to changing economic factors may decrease production in the long-term.
Drugs for Guns
NATO estimates that between 40 and 60 percent of the Taliban’s income comes from opium profits. The remaining percentage is derived from kidnappings for ransom, traditional Islamic payments known as zakat, and wealthy supporters in the Middle East. Zakat is a type of obligatory charity, usually a percentage of annual profits from a business.
Opium is harvested from poor farmers largely in the south and southwest of Afghanistan, who sell it to factories in the remote Badakhshan region, where it is turned into heroin. The drugs then move across the porous Afghan border into neighboring Central Asian countries, where it is traded or sold for weapons. Finally, the heroin is funneled into Western European countries and sold for hundreds times the Afghan farmers’ original price. Despite the un-Islamic nature of heroin, Taliban militants claim one of the largest benefits of growing the drug is the damage it incurs on non-Muslims, both militarily and through addiction.
Holding Onto a Cash Crop
Poppy production has flourished due in large part to the security Taliban insurgents provide farmers in return for a portion of the profits. Although the farmers sell the opium for only a fraction of the final sale price, poppy is by far the most profitable crop in Afghanistan. In addition to the high price of opium, poppy is a valuable product, as few crops can withstand the droughts that often plague Afghanistan.
When coalition forces launched a counter-narcotics campaign, to stem the vast funds that fuelled the Taliban insurgency, the first people to be affected were poor farmers. Large landowners were able to bribe government officials, while the smaller villagers felt as though their livelihood was under attack. The Taliban capitalized on this anger, pledging to protect the poppy fields.
As a result, poppy cultivation soared to an all time high in 2007. Even Nangahar, a province near complete poppy eradication in 2005, surged back to an over 270 percent increase in production last year, as government assistance proved to be far too small to convince the farmers to destroy the Taliban crop.
New Counter-Insurgency Strategy
The 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit demonstrates an example of a new strategy by coalition forces to win over the Afghan population. In May 2008, the troops moved into Helmand; however, instead of eradicating the numerous poppy fields, the Marines reassured villagers that their crops would not be touched. US commanders reported that destroying the fields only alienated people and pushed them into siding with the Taliban, especially during the traditional spring harvest. Instead, the Marines will focus on disrupting the supply lines after the harvest has been sold.
Opium Outlook
Despite Afghanistan’s continued dominance in the worldwide opium market, for the first time since 2001 the United Nations (UN) has reported a decline in overall opium production in the country. According to current predictions, over 20 of the 34 provinces will be poppy-free by the end of 2008, a number supported by both a UN report, Afghanistan’s counter-narcotics minister and several international journalists.
The decline in production can be attributed to the shifting counter-insurgency strategy, as well as the increased price of wheat in the global market. High food prices led several farmers to turn to wheat earlier this year, and a ban on wheat exports by neighboring Pakistan only increased domestic demand for the staple crop.
While this shift is unlikely to cause dramatic changes in Afghanistan in the near-term, the long-term consequences could hurt the Taliban in Afghanistan. Farmers would no longer need the security of militants, as coalition troops would allow wheat to flourish and farmers would be able to eat what they produce, relying less on the Taliban to sell their product. In addition to weakened support, less reliance on poppy crops would reduce the main source of Taliban income, hurting their ability to buy new weapons and pay their fighters.
