Highlights
– Spanish government announces plans to recruit and deploy increased police forces to combat ETA, Islamist terrorism, and organized crime
– Security forces arrest famed ETA leader, Javier Lopez Pena
– ETA wages strike; vows more to come
On May 28, 2008, Spanish government officials announced plans to exponentially expand the ranks of its intelligence services by 500 agents expressly dedicated to combating Islamist-based and ETA terrorism over the course of the next four years. The marked increase in agents operating under the National Intelligence Center (CNI) and connected branches of the National Police and Civil Guard forms a portion of a plan to reinforce the country’s security forces in the coming years, a move that is largely perceived as a testament to recently re-elected Spanish Prime Minister (PM) Jose Louis Rodriguez Zapatero’s commitment to combating terrorism on Spanish soil.
As we previously reported, following a spate of recent attacks and controversy over the re-election of PM Zapatero, Spanish Interior Minister Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba, warned the country must prepare for an increase in ETA violence (Previous Report). Referencing ETA’s June 2007 announcement ending a previously called 15-month ceasefire, Rubalcaba stated, “If ETA broke its truce, it was to go back to violence and for this reason we must prepare for a long cycle of violence.”
Despite the government’s intentions to expand its security forces, we believe it is likely ETA will continue to wage violent attacks in the near-term. Specifically, an April 2008 communiqué wherein the group claimed responsibility for recent attacks underscores ETA’s determination to remain in the public eye. Further its warning it would not “remain with its arms crossed while it watches how people are detained, tortured, and condemned for life or political parties are made illegal without impunity,” indicates it will likely wage increased attacks in a bid to maintain its relevancy in the near-term.
Security Forces Arrest Famed ETA Leader
Coinciding with the government’s plans to reinforce clandestine security forces, on May 21, 2008, a joint Spanish-French operation led to the arrest of Francisco Javier Lopez Pena, famed ETA leader. Arresting a total of four individuals, authorities detained four senior ETA members, to include Pena, in a Bordeaux apartment. Following the arrests, PM Zapatero hailed the operation announcing it, “delivered a severe blow to the leadership” and was “certainly another important step in the victory of democracy against terror.”
The following day, authorities arrested two more individuals, to include a former mayor of a Basque town and a French citizen who allegedly rented the apartment in Bordeaux to Pena and his comrades. French police also announced the discovery of handguns and materials likely employed for making improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in the suspects’ apartment.
Cutting a trip to Senegal short, Interior Minister Rubalcaba returned to Madrid immediately following the arrests. Addressing the public Rubalcaba stated, “This is not just another police operation in the sense that one of the detained, Francisco Javier Lopez Pena, is in all likelihood at this moment the person with the most political and military weight in the terrorist group ETA.” Rubalcaba’s reaction to the arrests is likely an attempt to demonstrate his government’s renewed commitment to combating and eventually defeating ETA.
Future Outlook
As we previously reported, following a spate of recent attacks and controversy over the re-election of PM Zapatero, Interior Minister Rubalcaba, continues to warn the country must prepare for an increase in ETA violence (Previous Report). Referencing ETA’s June 2007 announcement ending a previously called 15-month ceasefire, Rubalcaba stated, “If ETA broke its truce, it was to go back to violence and for this reason we must prepare for a long cycle of violence.”
The latest high-profile arrests come amid a renewed campaign of ETA violence and fervent calls the terror group will continue its armed struggle to obtain an independent Basque homeland. As recently as June 1, 2008, the group waged another attack when an IED exploded in the northern Basque region, causing two minor injuries, following a warning call from the group. Purportedly, the blast occurred outside the headquarters of a construction company in the town of Zarautz at around 2:30 am. Approximately one hour prior to the attack a man who claimed to speak in the name of ETA called the regional automobile assistance association to warn that a bomb would explode in the area at that time.
Despite PM Zapatero’s plans to reinforce the country’s security forces we believe it is likely ETA will continue to wage violent attacks in the near-term. Further, we believe ETA will continue to seek to retaliate against the Zapatero-led government. To this end, we will see continued terror plots bearing the traditional hallmarks of ETA – chaotic violence with less emphasis on civilian casualties.
An April 2008 communiqué wherein the group claimed responsibility for recent attacks underscores ETA’s determination to remain in the public eye. Further its warning it would not “remain with its arms crossed while it watches how people are detained, tortured, and condemned for life or political parties are made illegal without impunity,” indicates it will likely wage increased attacks in a bid to maintain its relevancy in the near-term.
