Highlights
– Disgruntled soldiers take army general hostage, demanding back wages be paid
– Talks between government and soldiers likely to resolve situation in near-term
– Union opposition to newly appointed Prime Minister poses additional threat to stability
On May 26, 2008, junior soldiers in the Guinean army took the army’s second in command hostage and fired shots in the air at bases on the outskirts of the capital, Conakry. The soldiers were disgruntled due to overdue wages. However, as the insurrection continued, the soldiers added alternative items such as providing increased food subsidies for soldiers and forcing top generals to resign to their list of demands. The crisis initially began with Guinean President Lansana Conte dismissing Prime Minister (PM) Lansana Kouyate on May 20, 2008 and replacing him with Ahmed Tidiane Souare, a close Conte ally. Kouyate had reportedly promised the soldiers that he would pay their back wages and give them bonuses. Additionally, Kouyate was appointed in February 2007 to end large-scale protests (Previous Report) and was approved by the labor unions and opposition party. While his performance as PM was widely viewed as a failure, the main opposition party and several unions are opposed to Souare’s appointment, with at least one union leader suggesting a general strike was possible.
Government Response
The government agreed to pay the wages owed to the soldiers on May 27, 2008. However, as a precaution the government deployed loyal presidential guard units on May 29, 2008 armed with rocket launchers, to patrol the streets of Conakry in armored vehicles. An initial round of payments began on May 30, 2008. The government is taking the situation seriously as Conte’s regime depends on the loyalty of the military to remain in power. The government has previously agreed to pay increases demanded by soldiers, though it has rarely followed through once the soldiers agree to avoid violence. Additionally, Prime Minister Souare agreed to fire the defense minister, one of the key requests of the soldiers.
On June 1, 2008 Conte met with the mutinous troops and top military commanders as negotiations to resolve the crisis were held. The two sides discussed possible replacements for the defense minister position, promotions for some soldiers, and cheaper rice for soldiers. Because Conte relies heavily on the loyalty of top military officials, it is unlikely they will be removed. However, if all other demands are met, it is likely soldiers will be willing to compromise and drop the demand that they resign.
Regional Impact
The insurrection has raised concerns about the stability of the country as well as the region as a whole. Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Côte d’Ivoire are all emerging from long civil wars. Guinea itself has experienced riots and mutinies since Conte, a brutal dictator, seized power in a 1984 coup.
Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf initiated a meeting of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The meeting was held in the Japanese city of Yokohama, where African leaders were attending the 4th Tokyo International Conference on African Development. The ECOWAS meeting involved Burkina Faso President Blaise Campaore, Ghanaian President John Kufour, Sierra Leonean President Ernest Bai Koroma, and Nigerian Vice President Goodluck Jonathan. Following the conference, ECOWAS released a statement calling on all parties to pursue dialogue and resist the use of violence to achieve their goals. The quickly called meeting demonstrated the importance of the situation in Guinea. Past efforts by ECOWAS to peacefully resolve situations have been largely successful. The unified voice of Guinea’s neighboring leaders will likely impact the soldiers and top military commanders to continue negotiations.
Outlook
Over the weekend, Conte’s presidential guard removed its tanks from defensive positions at the November 8 Bridge, which controls the entrance to downtown Conakry. Additionally, on May 30, 2008 the soldiers released the army general they had taken hostage as a sign of good faith. Talks between the top commanders and the mutinous soldiers have reportedly made significant progress on June 1 and 2, 2008. A final agreement is expected to be developed within days according to witnesses of the talks. Importantly, the soldiers never engaged with the trade unions, which are largely opposed to Conte’s rule. With an agreement likely to occur in the near-term, Conte will be able to continue relying on the military’s loyalty to keep him in power.
However, we remain concerned about the potential for a general strike in opposition to the new prime minister. General strikes in January and February 2007 left over 130 people dead and posed one of the greatest threats to Conte’s rule since he took power in 1984. The role of ECOWAS in ensuring the soldiers and military leaders reach an agreement will be important. Equally important will be ECOWAS’ role in resolving the disagreements between Conte and the unions. Tensions will remain elevated in Guinea in the near-term. With overall stability in Guinea an important factor to overall regional stability, ECOWAS will need to continue to play an important role in resolving issues the country faces.
