Highlights
– In his visit to Russia, Vice President Santos is likely to attempt to convince Moscow to revise its policy in Latin America, primarily in regards to its arms trade
– In order to convince Moscow to stop sending advanced weapons to Venezuela, Colombia is likely to offer the Russian military-industrial complex its own market
Colombian Vice President Francisco Santos has begun his 10-day planned visit to Russia, as the two countries are preparing to discuss a wide range of topics. The 46-year-old Santos, who is largely considered to be the successor to Colombian President Alvaro Uribe, was said to have personally contacted his counterpart in Russia to “intensify relations between the two countries.”
Increased speculation has arisen indicating Colombia is seeking to expand military-technical ties with Russia in an apparent attempt to counter the growing military might of neighboring Venezuela. Vice President Santos is most likely to attempt to convince Moscow to revise its policy in Latin America, primarily in regards to its arms trade.
The Venezuela Factor
It is no secret that Colombia is concerned about Hugo Chavez’s military buildup in Venezuela, which is boosted by Russian arms exports. Since 2005, Venezuela has purchased 24 Su-30MK2V fighters, Tor-MI air defense systems, 31 Mi-type helicopters, surface-to-air-missiles, 5,000 Dragunov sniper rifles, and 100,000 Kalashnikov assault rifles from Moscow.
Venezuela is planning to conclude several contracts with Russia next month on the purchase of military equipment worth at least US$2 billion, including transport plans, attack helicopters, and submarines. The exceptionally high level of military-technical cooperation between Moscow and Caracas seems to have pushed Colombia to take action.
Relations between Venezuela and Colombia have seriously deteriorated after the fiercely anti-America Hugo Chavez came to power in 1999. Relations worsened when Colombia authorized a military strike against Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) guerrillas in neighboring Ecuador in March 2008, sparking a regional confrontation and increased the possibilities of a war. Since then, Bogotá has stepped up accusations that Caracas is supporting FARC rebels.
In his visit to Russia, Vice President Santos is expected to stress the importance of maintaining a balance of power in the region. For that purpose, Colombia may be prepared to buy Russian weapons. In exchange, Bogotá hopes to convince Moscow to reduce arms supplies to Venezuela, a country it accuses of increasing tensions in the Latin America region.
Discussions with the Russians
Colombia’s unexpected desire to establish strong relations with Russia is largely an unseen aspect. One would expect Bogotá to seek the contracts not from Moscow but from its traditional ally the United States (US).
There is no doubt that relations between the US and Colombia remain strong, as President Alvaro Uribe is considered Washington’s most loyal ally in Latin America, but Santo’s visit to Russia signals that something larger is at stake. Bogota feels that it is the multi-billion-dollar arms shipments and contracts from Russia that give President Chavez his self-assurance in his conflict and war of words with Colombia.
In order to convince Moscow to stop sending advanced weapons to Venezuela, Colombia is likely to offer the Russian military-industrial complex its own market. To this end, speculation has arisen that during Vice President Santo’s visit to Moscow, Bogotá will express interest in obtaining fighter and transport helicopters, as well as Sukhoi jet fighters and armored vehicles.
Santos’s visit to Russia is not limited to enhancing military relations between the two nations, as the Vice President will take part in an investment forum called “Colombia, A Mine of Opportunity” in Moscow. Santos is expected to hold talks with the heads of leading Russian energy companies, such as Gazprom, Rosneft, and LUKOIL. Jointly with the Colombian company Ecopetrol, LUKOIL has been active in the country since 2002 and is exploring the Llanos Basin, one of Colombia’s largest oil and gas basins. On top of potential discussions with Russia’s major energy companies, Santos confirmed talks would be held with the Russian Railways president, as Colombia will discuss the modernization of the country’s major railroads.
Outlook
Vice President Santos’s visit to Russia is likely to have two main effects:
• First, the VP will likely attempt to further solidify commercial relations with Moscow, which can be seen by the number of meetings that are expected to be held between Santos and Russia’s top business leaders.
• Second, Colombia is almost certain to make clear to the Russian leadership that the arming of Venezuela threatens to destabilize the region.
Colombia understands that in spite of Chavez’s anti-American rhetoric, relations between Venezuela and Russia have no ideological base, and are largely based on commercial interests. Because of this, Santos is expected to further open its market to Russia, offering to purchase Russian weapons and enhance business relations.
While Russia is arming Venezuela, American military aid, reaching almost US$600 million a year helps Colombia maintain the military balance with its unpredictable neighbor. However, arms exports to Venezuela are reaching dangerous levels and is largely forcing Colombia to change its tactics by traveling to Russia and urging the country to revise its policy in Latin America, arguing its arms sales are putting the region on the brink of war. Colombia’s strategy of enhancing ties with Russia is unlikely to affect its relationship with the US, as the two countries largely share an ideological base and remain increasingly skeptical of Venezuela’s mid to long-term plans. It remains unknown if Santos will be successful in convincing the Russian leadership to stop arming Hugo Chavez’s regime. However, statements made by Russian President Dimitry Medvedev have signaled his commitment to maintaining military ties with Caracas, which will prove to a challenging obstacle in Colombia’s overall mission.
