Editor’s Note: This report is the first installment of a four-part assessment of the Taliban. The assessment will focus on the Taliban’s ideology, funding, tactics and future outlook.
Highlights
– Taliban militants are fighting for the implementation of Islamic law in Afghanistan and in Pakistan’s tribal areas
– The group has evolved from an organized army to a guerrilla movement characterized by minimal central leadership
– The new generation of Taliban is more radicalized and unpredictable than its senior leaders
The Taliban was created in the midst of a civil war in Afghanistan, after the withdrawal of Soviet troops in 1989. The organization was officially established in late 1994 with the endorsement of the Pakistani government and the Taliban acted as a convoy for trade between Pakistan and Central Asia. Taliban control of Afghanistan began in the southern province of Kandahar along the Pakistan border, eventually moving north where the group took over Kabul in 1996. Taliban leaders ruled Afghanistan for the next five years, until they were overthrown as a result of the invasion by United States (US)-led coalition forces in November 2001.
Despite international intervention in Afghanistan, the Taliban does not claim to wage a global jihad like terrorist organizations such as al-Qaeda; rather it has always looked for international recognition as the ruling government of Afghanistan. The Taliban has accused US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) troops of violating the sovereignty of Afghanistan and its leaders have dubbed the conflict a “war of independence.”
The internal disputes between Afghan tribes and the rigid structure of the Taliban allowed the organization to gain control of the country before the US-led invasion; however, the new generation of leadership may pose a threat to the unity of the group, as a new generation of radical younger insurgents conflict with senior leadership. This generational divide could lead to splinter groups, posing a greater threat to coalition troops in Afghanistan.
Regional Conflict
The Taliban’s main goal is to establish Islamic law, or Sharia, in Afghanistan as well as in the Pakistani tribal regions where the border between the two countries is often blurred by centuries old tribal allegiances. In May 2007, Maulana Sami ul-Haq known as the “Father of the Taliban” stated that the current conflict in Afghanistan is not based along ethnic lines, rather the Afghani people as a whole are uniting against the occupying troops. He remarks, “The Afghan nation has risen up against the invaders – the United States and its allies. It is a war of independence.”
The Taliban believe attacks against foreign troops as well as Afghans who collaborate with coalition forces are justified because they are all simply envoys of the US. Similarly, the Taliban explains that attacks in Pakistan are a result of the government’s support of the US-led Global War on Terror. Several suspected US missile strikes have hit Taliban strongholds in Pakistan’s tribal area in the first half of 2008 and Taliban leadership believes the attacks are the result of indirect support from the government, which rarely acknowledges the strikes.
An example of the Taliban response in Pakistan occurred after a May 17, 2008 missile strike that killed 14 people. During the ensuing days several terrorist incidents occurred in the surrounding area and the Taliban claimed responsibility for the deadliest attack, outside a Pakistani army-training centre . A Taliban spokesman stated that the attack was in response to both the Pakistani troops’ refusal to leave the tribal region and the recent US missile strike.
Evolving Taliban Identity
The Taliban was originally comprised of Afghanistan’s majority Pashtun ethnic group and the leadership chose the name “Taliban” because it means a student of Islamic theology, the occupation of many of the original members. Mullah Mohammad Omar, the supreme spiritual leader, is from the Ghilzai branch of Pashtuns; noteworthy, because the Ghilzai tribe is a historical adversary of President Hamid Karzai’s Durand tribe.
Since the Taliban is not an ethnic movement, the group has evolved to incorporate non-Pashtuns into their fold through a complex web of religious networks. While Mullah Omar is not an authoritarian leader, he advocates the universal Taliban goal of Sharia. The Taliban network today is based upon personal relationships amongst local communities, lacking one concrete organizational structure. Through this grassroots-based organization, the group can easily reorganize and adapt to changing conditions.
The Taliban of the 1990s fought battles similar to an army, conquering one town after another. Today, the disjointed pro-Taliban militants use guerrilla warfare, making it more difficult for US and NATO troops to predict and prepare for Taliban attacks. Additionally, the lack of central authority makes the Taliban dangerous because while one leader may make a peace agreement with the government or coalition forces, he can do nothing to stop militants from other regions from launching attacks.
The Unpredictable Neo-Taliban
Recent Taliban recruits largely originate from Afghans feeling disconnected from the US-backed government. Many Taliban supporters have lost family members or their livelihood during the ongoing fighting and were lured into the organization by Taliban claims that they would restore peace to Afghanistan and expel foreign forces.
However, the younger generation of recruits has grown up during decades of conflict and as a result have a much more radical mindset than the original Taliban. These radical youths are now replacing leaders, who have either been killed or captured, and their radical ideas are already seen in the increasing number of suicide and bomb attacks on non-military targets.