Highlights
– Elections set for June 27, 2008
– Opposition leader Tsvangirai alleges assassination plot
– Election-related violence likely
– Mugabe unlikely to cede power regardless of vote results
The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) announced on May 16, 2008 that the runoff elections from the March 27, 2008 presidential elections would be held on June 27, 2008. The runoff elections follow the official results released on May 2, 2008 that opposition candidate Morgan Tsvangirai of the Movement for Democratic Change received 47.9 percent of the vote while President Robert Mugabe of the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) won 43.2 percent of the vote. Since neither candidate passed the 50 percent threshold, a runoff vote is necessary. Despite a mandate that the runoff vote be held within 21 days, the ZEC argued it needed more time due to financial restraints. Thus the vote is delayed until June 27, 2008.
The MDC has alleged voting fraud and claims Tsvangirai won more than 50 percent of the vote, thus negating the need for runoff elections. After repeated calls for the international community to intervene, the MDC and Tsvangirai announced he would run in the June 27 elections.
Post-Election Violence
Following the March 29, 2008 elections, MDC supporters and members stated they had experienced high levels of violence directed towards them. The MDC has alleged that security forces raided their offices in a hotel in Harare on April 3, 2008 (Previous Report). Numerous reports indicated MDC supporters were arrested and beaten. Furthermore, three journalists, including an American journalist from the New York Times, were arrested for several days following the elections.
Additionally, Mugabe has deployed the army, police, and intelligence units to use intimidation and coercive tactics to gain support in the runoff elections. The United Nations (UN) has warned that violence has reached “crisis levels” and blamed Mugabe supporters for the attacks. However, the UN noted that some incidents of MDC violence directed at ZANU-PF supporters had occurred.
The United States (US) government has confirmed at least 20 deaths and more than 700 incidents of violence that resulted in the hospitalization of more than 200 people since the March 29 elections. Additionally, hundreds of MDC supporters, activists, party workers, journalists, students, trade unionists, non-governmental organization (NGO) workers, and human rights lawyers have been detained. The MDC has claimed 43 of its supporters have been killed and more than 5,000 families have been displaced due to violence.
Preparing for Violence
On April 15, 2008 the An Yue Jiang, a Chinese cargo ship, arrived in Durban, South Africa. The ship reportedly was carrying 3 million rounds of ammunition, 1,500 rocket propelled grenades (RPGs), and 2,500 mortar rounds. South African union workers refused to unload the cargo for fear that it would be used for politically motivated attacks by the Zimbabwean government. After leaving the port of Durban, the ship’s location became unknown. On May 19, 2008 the Zimbabwean government claimed to have received the six containers worth of weapons. According to South Africa’s Business Day newspaper, the ship’s cargo was unloaded in Angola despite international pressure to prohibit weapons to be unloaded and reach landlocked Zimbabwe. There are conflicting reports that the cargo may have been unloaded in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo) port of Ponta Negra, though Zimbabwean officials have stated the cargo was unloaded in Angola. The purchase of such a large amount of weapons has raised concerns that the government is preparing an unprecedented wave of violence in the event they lose the elections or declare a state of emergency.
Tsvangirai Assassination Threats
On May 19, 2008 members of the MDC announced the ruling ZANU-PF party was planning to assassinate Tsvangirai and other top MDC officials. MDC Secretary General Tendai Biti alleges he and Tsvangirai are among at least 12 MDC members on a government hit list. According to Biti, approximately 18 snipers are operating in the country under the command of the military intelligence directorate. Top ZANU-PF officials have denied a plot exists targeting MDC members. Due to increased international focus on Zimbabwe in the lead up to the elections, it is unlikely Tsvangirai would be assassinated by snipers. However, a less conspicuous attack on Tsvangirai remains plausible.
Outlook
The failure of the international community to condemn the post-election violence and the ZEC’s long delay in releasing the initial results, most importantly South African President Thabo Mbeki, has likely emboldened Mugabe, who has previously demonstrated little regard for the opinion of the international community. After the surprising defeat of the ZANU-PF by the MDC and its coalition partners in the parliamentary elections and Mugabe’s loss in the first round of the presidential election (Previous Report), Mugabe clearly understands his 28 year reign of power in Zimbabwe is at risk.
With the country’s economy remaining in a state of near-collapse, including severe food shortages and the highest inflation level in the world, it is unlikely Mugabe could legitimately win the elections. As such, the most likely outcome is electoral fraud by the ZEC. However, we remain concerned about the potential for Mugabe to declare a state of emergency and continue to rule indefinitely.
In the weeks leading up to, and directly following, the runoff elections, tensions will remain high. Violence, largely perpetrated by the state and ZANU-PF supporters, will continue. Without a clear sign from the international community, especially African leaders (which must include South Africa’s Mbeki), that the electoral fraud, violence, and a state of emergency to overrule the will of the people, it will remain unlikely Mugabe will lose control of power. However, despite a significant increase international pressure, it may not be enough to prevent Mugabe from using all possible options to retain power.
