Highlights
– Al-Qaeda in Yemen and other affiliated terror groups significantly increase operations in recent months
– Insurgent rebels follow closely behind terrorists’ lead; use similar tactics
– As terrorists increase operations in Yemen, rebels will likely take advantage of primed environment to conduct own operations in near to mid-term
Yemen has experienced a strong wave of terrorist attacks and insurgent fighting in recent months. The al-Qaeda in Yemen (AQY) organization and its affiliates, like the Yemen Soldiers Brigade, have claimed a record number of significant attacks against Western targets and government institutions, since the group’s infamous 2000 USS Cole and 2002 MV Limgurg operations , . However, terrorists are not the only combatants conducting attacks in Yemen.
Rebel insurgents have learned several important lessons from previous terrorist operations and are implementing similar and/or mirroring tactics in their own operations. By comparing the tactics used in previous and recent attacks, insurgents seem to be incorporating terrorist-type tactics, as well as employing similar targeting strategies as a means for attaining their goals. As terrorists become increasingly effective in instilling fear and attracting more international attention, it is likely insurgent rebels will continue to utilize similar tactics to yield similar responses in the near to mid-term.
Monkey See, Monkey Do
Since February 2008, a gradual merge in interests between insurgent rebels and internationally linked terrorist groups in Yemen have occurred (Previous Report). The first major incident, which left analysts curious as to the level of shared interests among the two groups, occurred on February 22, 2008, when security forces foiled a plot to bomb a major crude oil pipeline in the Marib province perpetrated by rebel tribesmen insurgents with no known connection to AQY or other international terrorist groups . Traditionally, rebel groups in Yemen, such as the Houthis in the north, are more interested in seeking out government-related targets, such as security forces and other government institutions. Their main objective for such attacks is to gain political and social equality, as well as retribution for previous government actions. However, rebel groups have begun to seek out larger, more internationally attractive targets that are akin to stereotypical terrorist targets, such as Westerners and Western interests, as an attempt to apply international pressures on the government to satisfy their needs.
For instance, insurgents have also targeted tourists in Yemen, which further synthesizes the targets between rebel groups and terrorists. On May 7, 2008, rebel tribesmen kidnapped two female Japanese tourists sightseeing in the Marib province . Although the hostages were eventually released, their abduction, along with heightened potential of targeting Westerners as well, has created an international awareness of foreign targeting in Yemen, resulting in a negative impact on the tourist industry in the Gulf country.
Increased Risk for Western Tourists in Yemen
As rebel insurgents continue to employ these new targeting and tactics, an increased probability that foreign tourists and Westerners, in general, will be targeted in the near to mid-term is likely. Insurgents attack such targets in hopes of yielding more desirable responses from the Yemeni government, as the international community continues to apply pressure for change and remedying such insurgencies.
Ultimately, it is of little relevance whether the attacks are carried out by terrorists or by rebels, as the targets remain to be the same. Whereas it may be less difficult to negotiate with insurgents than with terrorists, it has typically been the case that negotiations do not commence until after the abduction or attack has been made. Therefore, foreign tourists and visiting Westerners are likely to remain prone to operations carried out by rebels, and especially by terrorists. Though terrorists may be more capable of orchestrating larger, more destructive attacks than rebel groups, both are actively seeking out similar targets in the near to mid-term.