Highlights
– Corruption scandals plague the country
– Rumors of discord and violence within the first family
– Instability is likely in the near term
Tajikistan is one of the poorest former Soviet states in Central Asia and the country’s inherent difficulties with modernization, political and economic growth epitomize the difficulties facing neighboring former Soviet states such as Uzbekistan Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan. However, unlike some of its neighbors, Tajikistan is not blessed with an abundance of natural resources upon which the country can rely on. The country does not have energy-related resources and only limited amounts of mineral resources. However, cotton is a lucrative and sustainable crop for the country. Additionally, Tajikistan is also benefiting from a profitable aluminum industry.
While its governments have been relatively stable since the civil war that occurred between 1992-1997, the most recent set of Presidential and Parliamentary elections were considered flawed, although peaceful. Independent media also struggles as many media outlets continue to walk a very careful line between criticism of the government and coverage of political developments.
Power, both political and economic is concentrated in the hands of the few. The “first family” of current President, Imomali Rahmon is very large and involved in various aspects of Tajikistan life. The president’s daughter, Takhmina is the owner of a major construction firm in Dushanbe. His brother-in-law, Khasan Sadullayev is considered to be one of the most influential and powerful men in the country, heading up one of its major banks, Orienbank as well as controlling a host of other lucrative business interests. Sadullayev often accompanied the President on many of his visits and events. However, in recent weeks Sadulloyev has become noticeably absent from the public scene, resulting in rampant rumors he has been killed.
Trouble in the Family
Although his death has not been substantiated by any independent sources, and the Tajik government has vigorously denied these claims, reports from regional media websites that are also now being discussed on international media sites such as Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) and Eurasianet indicate his own nephew and the president’s son, Rustam, shot Sadullayev. The shooting allegedly occurred during a heated dispute over control of Orienbank, one of the largest banks in Tajaikistan. Additionally, the dispute included the president’s daughter who was also vying for control over the bank. Whether or not this story is true, it does put a negative spotlight on the first family and their control of major assets in Tajikistan. In addition, it is believed that Sadulloyev was falling out of favor with the presidential family due to his rising prominence in Tajikistan and because he posed a threat as potential opposition to their rule. Specifically, a successful radio station he controlled through his various holdings was recently taken off the air due to “technical reasons,” however critics believe the station was silenced because of its independent coverage of political developments.
Downward Spiral
Tajikistan faces overwhelming difficulties. To this end, the country is in the middle of a social-economic crisis. After suffering a severe winter, the country is reeling from marked shortages of heat and electricity. Failed crops are expected and food shortages have been experienced, as well as rampant inflation. Tajikistan has also been rocked by an international banking scandal wherein the new Chief of the National Bank of Tajikistan admitted that the country gave the International Monetary Fund (IMF) fraudulent information in order to secure a US$48 million loan. The bank chief claimed that this deception was necessary not because Tajikistan generally pursued corrupt practices, but rather because they were desperate to bolster the struggling agricultural sector. However, Tajikistan is now faced with repaying the loan.
A follow-on corruption scandal broke out over the Tajik Aluminum Plant and its activities as well as the extremely expensive fees paid by the Tajik government to defend this case. Adding to the controversy is Khasan Sadulloyev’s role as senior executive in a trading company for Tajik Aluminum.
Outlook
Tajikistan is a country in crisis and any allegations of corruption and wrongdoing associated with the first family only serves to further undermine their credibility and weaken the institution of governance. Tajikistan’s growing international reputation for corruption taken together with environmental, economic and energy crises plaguing the country only cast more doubt on the president’s inner circle and ability to govern. Allegations of power struggles also serve to make the government appear weak. Finally, although international financial institutions have pledged to continue to aid Tajikistan, it is certainly possible that foreign investment will dry up after the recent corruption scandals leading to further economic woes and instability in the country.
