Highlights
– Olmert accused of accepting bribes from Morris Talansky
– Likud members and the Israeli public call for Olmert’s resignation
– Possible successors are Tzipi Livni and Benjamin Netanyahu
– Olmert will likely survive the investigation and remain in office through 2008
In late June 2008, the State Prosecutor launched an investigation into allegations that Israeli Prime Minister (PM) Ehud Olmert accepted bribes from American businessman Morris Talansky in the 13 years prior to his premiership. Originally protected from public scrutiny by a ten-day, court-issued gag order, emerging details of the National Fraud Unit’s investigation have scandalized PM Olmert’s office. Ministers of the Knesset’s right wing Likud party are calling on PM Olmert to step down, while Kadima party leaders are positioning to succeed PM Olmert.
For his part, PM Olmert denies all bribery allegations. When questioned by police, the prime minister and Talansky indicated that Talansky raised funds Olmert’s campaigns over the years, but the money was donated through legal channels. Olmert’s office manager Shula Zakin and personal attorney Uri Messer are also witnesses in the ongoing investigation. Talansky is scheduled for a final interview before he leaves Israel on May 25, 2008. Subsequently, the police summoned PM Olmert for a second round of questioning later this week in an effort to “lock” Olmert to a version of the events prior to Talansky’s public deposition.
Calls for Olmert to Step Down
The PM indicated he would step down from office if convicted. However, Likud Ministers of Knesset (MK) argue that Olmert’s weakened position in the midst of the peace process compromises Israel’s negotiating position. Deputy Speaker of the Knesset and Likud party member Gideon Sa’ar agreed with this assessment saying, “At this moment, the prime minister’s attention isn’t on matters of state and on running the country, and he’s not worthy to lead the country.”
May 12, 2008 public opinion polls indicate that 59 percent of Israelis believe Olmert should resign from office. Opinion polls also indicate Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni would likely be nominated by a subsequent Kadima primary as Olmert’s successor. If early elections are called by majority vote in the Knesset, polls reflect a possible win for the Likud, led by Benjamin Netanyahu or for Kadima led by Tzipi Livni.
Implications for the Peace Process
The State Prosecutor’s office signified in separate reports that a verdict may be reached in one to six months. Should Olmert be found guilty and forced to resign, a Kadima primary resulting in the election of Livni will not hinder ongoing Peace Talks—Livni is the current Israeli negotiator for the Peace Process and has been party to all agreed upon standards up to this point. On the other hand, if an early election is called and Benjamin Netanyahu and the Likud win the Knesset, the Peace Process will stall—Netanyahu was opposed to Olmert’s decision to disengage from Gaza and to holding peace talks with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.
Feeling the weight of fighting for a Peace Accord in the midst of a divided Palestinian government and alongside a weakened Israeli counterpart, President Abbas told reporters last week he intends to step down if a peace accord is not reached in six months. For his part, Olmert hopes to reach an accord by August 2008. However, if the parties are able to reach an accord, divided popular support for the peace process suggests any agreement reached will not likely be implemented (Previous Report).
Olmert Survives
Corruption investigations are commonplace in Israeli politics. Former Prime Ministers Ariel Sharon, Ehud Barak, and Benjamin Netanyahu were all investigated without conviction. The recent investigation launched into PM Olmert is the fifth corruption investigation launched against him since he took office in 2006. Thus far, Olmert has survived opposition within his party following the negative findings of the Winograd Commission in 2007 (Previous Report), a bout with cancer, and low approval ratings.
Likewise, Olmert will probably survive the ongoing bribery investigation. The prosecution’s case appears weak and may reveal itself to be nothing more than a political attack. For members of the ruling party, the Kadima, changing negotiating partners at this point in the Peace Process and the prospect of the Likud taking power would be far more damaging than Olmert remaining in office. The Likud, on the other hand, would see Olmert removed from office, but does not possess a majority of the Knesset, which is required to force an early election. Therefore, Olmert is slated to survive yet another attempt to dethrone him.
