Highlights
– New report indicates the Pentagon is planning an invasion of Iran
– A conventional war between the US and Iran is unlikely in the near-term
– Any conflict between the two countries would result in serious regional implications
The Pentagon has been on the defensive since CBS news released a report claiming that the United States Department of Defense (DOD) ordered new options to be drawn up for attacking the Islamic republic. The report also claimed the State Department began drafting an ultimatum that would tell Iran to stop meddling in Iraq or else. According to a Pentagon spokesman, the United States (US) military has not initiated new planning for a war with Iran.
The Pentagon’s New Plans
Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has also flatly denied accusations the US is preparing for military attacks on Iran. However, Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell stated the Pentagon has contingency plans and “we update them for every possibility.”
Morrell continued, “to characterize what is going on now as a new war planning effort against Iran would be wrong.”
The latest CBS report indicating the Pentagon was drawing up new attack plans is nothing out of the ordinary. It is not uncommon for the US to maintain contingency plans for so-called “rogue” states such as Iran. However, it is the recent escalation in rhetoric between the United States and Iran that has caused some to claim updating contingency plans is equivalent to planning for war.
Increased Tensions and Accusations
Accusations regularly fly between the US and Iran concerning their involvement in Iraq, among other issues. However, the past few weeks have seen charges involving Iraq take a more specific and dramatic turn. In recent weeks, the US military has accused Iran of arming Shi’ite militias inside the war zone. Also, an unnamed American official claimed that Hezbollah, the militant group based in Lebanon, has been training Iraqi fighters at a location close to Tehran. While this is only an allegation, if this were proven to be true, it would represent a dramatic escalation in tensions between Tehran and Washington.
The US continues to believe that Iran is absolutely determined to acquire nuclear weapons, despite the implementation of United Nations (UN) sanctions and American efforts to isolate the Islamic republic. However, Iran has fervently dismissed US accusations as false and has continued on the path of developing nuclear energy.
On May 5, 2008, the State Department released its annual report listing Iran as the world’s “most active” state sponsor of terrorism, seeking to build regional influence and drive the US from the Middle East. In the annual report, the State Department declared that Iran provides aid to Palestinian terrorist groups, Hezbollah, Iraqi-based militants, and the Taliban in Afghanistan. However, it’s Iran’s role in Iraq that has caused the most recent escalation in tensions and speculation that the two countries are headed for war.
In Iraq, US forces have been hit with rising casualties, reversing a seven-month-long downturn in violence. Rising casualties have occurred in coordination with a marked increase in rocket attacks by Iranian-backed militias and intensified fighting around the Shi’ite bastion of Sadr City in Baghdad. Caches of Iranian-made weapons found in Basra last month had markings that showed they were manufactured this year, months after Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki received a pledge from his counterpart in Iran that they would work to stop the flow of weapons.
Iran has not only sought to spread its influence in Iraq by training Iraqi Shi’ite fighters, but also through legitimate economic assistance, in particular across the oil-rich south. However, the US government and specific elements within Iraq remain wary of Iran’s short and long-term intentions in the country.
Future Outlook
Armed conflict between the US and Iran would have major implications for the region as a whole. Israel, Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq would be affected in various ways. The war in Iraq and political situation in Lebanon would likely become further complicated, as Iran’s growing influence in both countries cannot be disregarded.
Admiral Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, recently stated that with troops currently operating in Iraq and Afghanistan, a conflict with Iran would be extremely stressing, but not impossible for US forces. However, Mullen made it clear that a diplomatic solution is preferred with Iran over its nuclear program and increasingly destabilizing role in Iraq.
While the US government has stepped up rhetoric against Tehran by making new accusations that the Islamic Republic continues supporting Shi’ite militias and is the most active state sponsor of terrorism, a conventional war between the two countries is unlikely in the near-term. However, tensions in the region remain extremely high due to ongoing violence in Iraq and Lebanon, which many believe Iran is playing a role in.
Any conflict between the US and Iran would further complicate the situation in Iraq, something the US wants to avoid.
