Highlights
– ETA claims responsibility for brazen assassination
– Spanish Prime Minister Zapatero re-elected, ETA remains challenge
– Terror attacks persists, group committed to fight for independent Basque homeland
In the immediate aftermath of Spanish Socialist Prime Minister (PM) Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero’s March 2008 re-election victory, ETA remains a formidable and determined terrorist organization. In the months following PM Zapatero’s win ETA has reinitiated an intense campaign employing violence and assassination to reassert its agenda to attain an independent Basque homeland.
As we previously reported, in April 2008, ETA publicly claimed responsibility for a brazen attack against a former Socialist Councilor outside of his home in the Basque town of Mondragon (Previous Report). Using the Basque-language newspaper, Gara, ETA claimed responsibility for the assassination and subsequent spate of bombings carried out in the past two months. In the statement, ETA warned it would not “remain with its arms crossed while it watches how people are detained, tortured, and condemned for life or political parties are made illegal without impunity.”
Following a line of recent attacks and controversy over the re-election of Zapatero, Spanish Interior Minister Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba, warned the country must prepare for an increase in ETA violence. Referencing ETA’s June 2007 announcement ending a previously called 15-month ceasefire, Rubalcaba stated, “If ETA broke its truce, it was to go back to violence and for this reason we must prepare for a long cycle of violence” (Previous Report).
Zapatero Wins Re-Election
As we previously reported, on March 9, 2008, PM Zapatero garnered a decisive win over his opponent, People’s Party (PP) candidate, Mariano Rajoy, thus extending his position as Spanish PM and beginning his second term in office. The victory follows a surprise election win in 2004 in the aftermath of Spain’s largest terrorist attack, the March 11, 2004 Madrid train bombings , and serves to legitimize his previous election.
Returning to office, PM Zapatero faces significant challenges due to the country’s continuous struggle to combat Basque separatist group, ETA. To this end, should he fail to achieve a negotiated peace agreement with ETA, the Socialist party will suffer the consequences, leading to marked public backlash and a resurgence of public support for the opposition PP.
Campaign Slated to Heat Up
Spanish security services remain concerned the group is planning a summer campaign of violence. Specifically, concerns are heightened as a direct result of the March 2008 Carrasco assassination, indicating ETA was actively seeking to ramp-up attacks. Despite the recent arrests of key ETA leadership, security services indicate the group appears steadfast in its determination to continue the violence.
Citing increased frustration over PM Zapatero’s failed efforts to forge a peace agreement, anti-terrorism officials believe ETA’s next target of choice may be the PM himself, either by using political pressure or resorting to violence. One official stated, “We now believe ETA will start a prolonged campaign to put Zapatero under pressure.”
Additionally, Spanish Interior Minister Rubalcaba has warned the country must prepare for an increase in ETA violence. Referencing ETA’s June 2007 announcement ending a previously called 15-month ceasefire, Rubalcaba stated, “If ETA broke its truce, it was to go back to violence and for this reason we must prepare for a long cycle of violence.”
Future of the Organization
Despite recent significant crackdowns on the group, we believe ETA will continue to be a strong, formidable, and determined organization. The Carrasco assassination has reignited fears ETA is returning to its roots– targeting political leaders. Further, the return to violence underscores ETA’s renewed commitment to violent attacks.
We believe ETA will continue to seek to retaliate against the Zapatero-led government. To this end, we will see continued terror plots bearing the traditional hallmarks of ETA – chaotic violence with less emphasis on civilian casualties. However, the Carrasco assassination may also indicate an increased targeting of government officials.
The April 2008 communiqué wherein the group claimed responsibility for recent attacks underscores ETA’s determination to remain in the public eye. Further its warning it would not “remain with its arms crossed while it watches how people are detained, tortured, and condemned for life or political parties are made illegal without impunity,” indicates it will likely wage increased attacks in a bid to maintain its relevancy in the near-term.
