Highlights
– Djibouti accuses Eritrean troops of crossing into Djibouti
– Tensions remain high due to lengthy border dispute
– Situation is latest example of growing tensions in Horn of Africa
On May 6, 2008, Djibouti accused Eritrea of violating its international border by sending troops into Djibouti’s territory. Eritrea denied the accusation. The area where the troops were alleged to have entered Djiboutian territory has been a flash point for tensions between the two countries for over a decade.
A History of Disputes
Djibouti and Eritrea have previously come to the brink of armed conflict twice over the disputed border between the two countries near the southern end of the Red Sea. In April 1996, the two countries nearly went to war after a Djiboutian official accused Asmara of shelling the town of Ras Doumeira. In 1999, Eritrea accused Djibouti of allying itself with Ethiopia, Eritrea’s longtime foe. In response, Djibouti accused Eritrea of supporting Djiboutian rebels and seeking control of the Ras Doumeira region.
Horn of Africa: On The Brink of War
The increased tensions between Eritrea and Djibouti are that latest in a series of conflicts and potential conflicts in the Horn of Africa. The ongoing insurgency in Somalia remains the hottest conflict, as Ethiopian troops are currently supporting an unpopular government following the December 2006 overthrow of the Supreme Islamic Courts Council government (Previous Report). Tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia, which fought a border war in 1998 to 2000, have remained elevated over the past year as the continued failure of the two sides to agree to a permanent border has led to both sides amassing troops along the tentative border (Previous Report). Eritrean support of Somali and Ethiopian rebel groups has also led to an increase in tensions. In response, Eritrea has accused Ethiopia of backing anti-government Eritrean rebels.
Outlook
Currently, Eritrean troops have dug trenches on Djiboutian soil, according Djiboutian President Ismail Omar Guelleh. Guelleh stated in a letter to the United Nations (UN) Security Council that Eritrea has steadily built up its forces on Djiboutian soil since February 2008. The Djiboutian government has responded by reinforcing its troops along the border. Guelleh has described the situation as “explosive.” Guelleh stated that if the international community did not take action, his country would be forced to “defend” the country and its sovereignty.
Both the town of Badme, which Ethiopia and Eritrea both claim control of, and the town of Ras Doumeira, which Djibouti and Eritrea are claiming control of, have little value. While Eritrea has gone to war with Ethiopia already, and continues to appear to be preparing for the possibility of renewed armed conflict, Eritrea has always backed down when faced with the prospect of fighting Djibouti. Despite Eritrean belligerence, it is unlikely the government in Asmara is seeking armed conflict on two fronts, especially due to US training both Ethiopian and Djiboutian security forces.
In the near-term, tensions will remain elevated between Djibouti and Eritrea. However, it is unlikely the two will go to war. We remain most concerned with the ongoing elevated possibility of conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
