Highlights
– MEND launches “Operation Cyclone,” aimed at crippling the oil industry
– Nigerian government tries MEND leader Henry Okah in secret
– Despite opportunity for serious negotiations, attacks are likely to continue in the near-term due to the Nigerian government’s failure to seriously negotiate
In an email to journalist sent April 19, 2008, Jomo Gbomo, the spokesman for the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), announced it was launching “Operation Cyclone.” Gbomo, a pseudonym previously employed by MEND leader Henry Okah prior to his arrest, stated that the aim of “Operation Cyclone” was the “crippling of the Nigerian oil export industry.” The e-mail claimed responsibility the first attack of “Operation Cyclone,” an attack on the Adamakri Flow line belonging to Shell Petroleum Development Company on April 17, 2008. The email warned, “many more attacks will follow.”
Two additional “Operation Cyclone” attacks occurred on April 21, 2008, involving two explosions at pipelines at the Isaka Rier and the Abonnema River, both located in the Rivers state. The attacks severely affected the Adamakri Flow line belonging to Shell Petroleum Development Company. Additionally, the attacks resulted in a significant decrease in oil production by approximately 169,000 barrels per day (bpd).
On April 24, 2008, MEND launched its fourth attack on the Kula Trunk pipeline. MEND, according to its sources within Shell, claimed the attack cut oil production by 350,000 bpd, bringing the total decrease in Shell’s oil output to 500,000 bpd.
A fifth attack, also targeting Shell pipelines, occurred on May 3, 2008. The bombing of oil wells as well as the inlet manifold and delivery lines of the flow station occurred in southern Bayelsa state.
MEND Communiqués
MEND claimed the attacks were intended to demonstrate to the oil companies that the Nigerian government remains unable to adequately provide security to oil companies operating in the Niger Delta. Furthermore, MEND stated the attack was the group’s “way of saying ‘welcome’ to the US warship, the high-speed vessel Swift, which has been visiting the Gulf of Guinea to conduct training with the Nigerian navy.”
MEND warned, “our candid advice to the oil majors is that they should not waste their time repairing any lines as we will continue to sabotage them.”
MEND stated it still hoped foreign mediators would become involved, declaring it preferred former US President Jimmy Carter over current President George W. Bush due to Bush’s lack of response to two MEND requests earlier this year.
A separate e-mail to the Daily Telegraph, a British newspaper, warned MEND intended to start targeting British interests employing a variety of attack methods to include kidnappings.
MEND sympathizers launched an attack on April 27, 2008 at the Bonny Police station, stealing weapons during the attack. Several police officers were killed in the attack.
As part of “Operation Cyclone,” MEND reported it had distributed explosives to communities throughout the Niger Delta to empower them to launch attacks on pipelines throughout the region.
Effects Thus far of “ Operation Cyclone”
The increase in attacks coupled with a strike at ExxonMobil cut oil production by approximately 1.716 million, which is an estimated 70 percent of total output. The strike was resolved and production resumed on May 5, 2008 at 300,000 bpd, short of the 866,000 bpd output before the strike began. The strike and the escalation of attacks forced ExxonMobil to declare force majeure, meaning it would be unable to meet its contractual obligations for crude deliveries, for May and June. Oil production has improved since the first week of attacks, slowly returning to the 25 percent cut in output that has been in effect since MEND launched its rebellion in late 2005.
The increase in attacks, combined with the threat of further attacks, helped push the price of oil to US$120.
Outlook
An e-mail sent on March 5, 2008, stated MEND was considering a temporary cease-fire due to an appeal made by US Senator Barack Obama. MEND also stated the temporary cease-fire would give the Nigerian government an opportunity to reconsider its recent decision to hold MEND leader Henry Okah’s trial in secret.
MEND has repeatedly stated it would end its rebellion if the Nigerian government addressed its demands. The rebel group has made appeals to President Bush, former President Carter, and activist and Hollywood star George Clooney. However, the Nigerian government, during two different presidential administrations, has refused to negotiate with MEND.
While the opportunity for negotiations remains, it is unlikely the government will make the concessions necessary to end the rebellion. The ongoing “Operation Cyclone” combined with the proposed secret trial of Henry Okah, will likely lead to an ongoing spike in attacks, specifically targeting the oil infrastructure. Ongoing attacks will continue to affect oil output in Nigeria, and will continue to aid in keeping the record highs in the price of oil.
