Highlights
– FPM supporter named in connection to the shooting of two Phalange activists
– Constituents weary of political stalemate, seek president’s election
– Loss of Michel Murr indicates growing public displeasure with the Opposition
– Fragile peace likely to hold in the near term
Over a week has passed since the April 20, 2008 killing of Phalange activists Nasri Maruni and Salim Assi in the Bekaa Valley town of Zahle . The men were gunned down at the inauguration of a new Phalange office building in the small Christian town. Joseph Zouki and his brother Thome, supporters of Popular Bloc leader and Zahle MP Elie Skaff, are wanted in connection with the murders.
Joseph was identified as the shooter by witnesses and his involvement was later confirmed by his cousin Walid Zouki, who turned himself into authorities for helping smuggle Joseph out of Zahle after his cousin threatened to kill him.
Intra-Christian Strife
The Lebanese Christian Political landscape has long been dominated by ruling families from the days of the Ottoman Empire. Today, these families dominate Lebanon’s most influential political parties. In the months following the February 14, 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiik Hariri, the Lebanese Parliament was divided into the majority anti-Syrian bloc—March 14—and its Opposition the pro-Syrian bloc—the March 8. Christian loyalties were divided between March 14 members, the Phalange and Lebanese Forces, and March 8 members, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), lead by Michelle Aoun, and Greek Orthodox Leader Michel Murr.
However, Christian support for the Opposition appears to be waning as the population grows weary of the five-month Presidential election standoff and parliament’s failure to convene since October 2005 (Previous Report). As a result of the Opposition’s continued political maneuvering and refusal to convene parliament, former March 8 member Michel Murr had a falling out with FPM leader Michelle Aoun—who has yet to officially align with the March 14 Coalition. Following his split with the March 8 Coalition, Murr warned Christian politicians saying, “Christians should not be lied to; under the false pretence of defending the rights of their community, presidential elections are being blocked.”
In the Metn voting district, under which Zahle falls, March 14 bloc members, the Phalange and the Lebanese Forces, compete with FPM MP Elias Skaff for the Christian vote. MP Skaff’s FPM party has long dominated the political scene of the majority Roman Catholic town, Zahle. However, the April 20, 2008 shooting took place following a weekend municipal gathering of district councilmen seeking to pressure Skaff to alter his political stance. The councilmen expressed their displeasure with the, “failure of Zahle representatives to perform their national duty by electing a president.”
March 14 Coalition member and Phalange boss Amin Gemayel called the shooting a “premeditated act” and accused the “assailants’ leaders” of aiding and abetting the perpetrators. MP Murr, however, called the murders an, “isolated act,” adding he would, “not provide protection for the assailants.”
Fragile Peace: Security Concerns Moving Forward
The shootings raised fears that retaliation attacks and violence would spread to Northern Lebanon and Beirut. However, a week has passed without retaliatory violence. Instead, Phalange leaders are leveraging public opposition to the attack in order to demonstrate the Opposition’s unwillingness to reach a peaceful compromise in the election of presidential candidate General Michel Suleiman. By doing so, the March 14 Coalition members hope to win the support of the estimated 50 percent of Lebanese Christians who have yet to define their allegiance to either political bloc.
The past year’s rumored rearmament of Christian militias, however, causes many to doubt the fragile peace will hold. Most believe the Christian militias are the most likely trigger for a potential second Lebanese Civil War. Unlike the Sunni and Shia political blocs, who reached a ceasefire agreement following the deaths of seven Opposition demonstrators on January 29, 2008, the Christian militias have yet to sign an agreement prohibiting inter-militia violence (Previous Report).
Nonetheless, the Phalange and Lebanese Forces have refrained from retaliation for past assassinations against their supporters, demonstrating their determination to forestall a return to Lebanon’s violent Civil War era. Short of violence, the Christian majority members’ best chance of winning unclaimed Christian support lies with political compromise. Christian March 8 members also recognize the need to distance themselves from political violence in order to win public opinion.
Therefore, in the interest of winning political support, neither the Christian March 14 nor the March 8 bloc members are likely to retaliate or openly seek to spark a war between Christian militias.
