Highlights
– US government advises citizens to be cautious when visiting border region
– 210 deaths since January 2008 force Chihuahua authorities to request federal assistance
– Clashes over territory between two drug cartels trigger an increase in violence
– Mexican government faces extensive battle with cartel violence
On April 14, 2008, the United States Department of State issued a new travel alert, effective for six months, for the border region between the United States and Mexico. According to the alert, violence in the area is “aimed primarily at members of drug-trafficking organizations, Mexican police forces, criminal justice officials and journalists. However, foreign visitors and residents, including Americans, have been among the victims of homicides and kidnappings in the border region.”
The increase in violence due to hostilities between drug trafficking organizations has created hazardous conditions for those traveling or living in the region. We believe elevated levels of violence will continue in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua City (Chihuahua state) and Tijuana (Baja California state). Drug cartels related violence will remain a problem for Mexican federal authorities in the mid to long-term.
An Escalation in Violence
Ciudad Juarez, the sister city of El Paso, Texas has seen the biggest escalation in violence as more than 210 deaths were reported in the first three months of 2008 alone, a significant increase from the same time last year. At the peak of the violence, at least one body was discovered every morning totaling close to 12 each week with 22 being recovered on the third weekend of March alone. In 2007, a total of 2,500 people were murdered in clashes over drug territory and 5,600 in sum since 2006. In addition to homicides, bank robberies, kidnappings and car thefts all have soared this year.
The Fight for Control
The Juarez Cartel, led by Vincente Carrillo Fuentes, dominated the drug smuggling business on the border in the late 1980s until the Sinaloa Cartel, a former ally, expanded to the area. In 2004, Rodolfo Carrillo Fuentes, of the Juarez Cartel, was assassinated. Many believe Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, leader of the Sinaloa Cartel, was behind the homicide. Tensions between the two groups have been strained ever since.
Additionally, it is reported that in December 2007 a member of the Sinaloa Cartel named Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada refused to pay a drug smuggling tax to the Juarez Cartel, intensifying the aggression between the two organizations. Following the incident, Zambada and Guzman instigated an offensive against the Juarez Cartel subsequently causing an upsurge in violence.
City, State and Federal Response
After failing to halt high levels of violence between the organizations, Mexican city and state officials sought federal support. President Felipe Calderon has deployed more than 30,000 soldiers and federal police to twelve states in accordance with his new initiative to combat organized crime. Calderon hopes to weaken the cartels and the conflict between the two. Mexico has also received support from US President George Bush who has pledged US$1.4 billion to fund new anti-drug cartel equipment. However, the plan is stalled pending US lawmakers’ approval. Lawmakers are citing an inadequate description of spending details.
Outlook
Mexican officials admit to a marked lack in security and subsequent violence in the region, however adamantly rejected the US government’s alert to its citizens. We believe high levels of violence will most likely continue, especially in Ciudad Juarez as well as Chihuahua City and Tijuana as the battle against cartels continues. Further, anti-drug cartel operations will continue to be a federal level crisis in the mid to long term.
Cartels intimidate many individuals in the border area, including federal soldiers who wear masks to maintain anonymity. Corruption and fear will likely hinder the success of Calderon’s plan as many of the nation’s soldiers have deserted their posts and joined a cartel or have supported and protected drug cartel members. Cartels have publicly offered more money, food, and family care to soldiers or former soldiers as a recruitment strategy. Violence also may increase in the areas of Reynosa and Nuevo Laredo where reports have shown corruption to be prevalent and advertisements are publicly displayed in an attempt to recruit soldiers.
