Highlights
– The Kavoshgar 1 rocket is based on Iran’s Shahab 3B missile
– Iran is developing a missile with a range of 6,000km, capable of hitting targets in Europe
– Iran may be using a space program as a facade for its weapons program
New satellite photographs show a secret site where Iran is suspected of developing long-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching targets in Europe. According to British media reports, the imagery pinpointed the facility from where the Iranians launched their Kavoshgar 1 “research rocket” on February 4, 2008. Tehran claimed that the launch was a part of their space program.
A “Space Program”
Responding to the images, President Ahmadinejad said on state-run television that Iran needs to have an active presence in space and the country has taken its first step to achieve that goal. The Iranian government insists satellites should be sent into orbit to monitor natural disasters and to improve telecommunications, as well as for security reasons.
The Kavoshgar 1 rocket was launched from a facility located 230km southeast of Tehran, and was based on Iran’s Shahab 3B missile, which is in turn based on North Korea’s Nodong missile.
Geoffrey Forden, a member of the United Nations (UN) team monitoring Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction in 2002 and 2003, claimed that while the actual test rocket did not indicate any significant advances in Iran’s missile technology, the launch site consists of high levels of security and evidence indicates the area has undergone recent construction activity, thus the site appeared to be an important strategic facility. The recently constructed building on the site that drew suspicion was about 40 meters in length, and resembled in form and size the Taepodong long-range missile assembly facility in North Korea.
Europe in the Crosshairs
Analysis of the Iranian site indicates Tehran may be approximately five years away from developing a 6,000km range ballistic missile. Missiles with this range can not only hit any Middle Eastern country, but can also reach targets in Europe, including areas in the United Kingdom, as well as targets in China, Russia, and India.
If the Iranian facility were indeed developing long-range ballistic missiles, it would explain the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) decision last week to press ahead with the missile defense shield support by the United States. The Czech Republic has now agreed to host a radar system on its soil and Poland is still negotiating with the US over hosting ten interceptor missiles. Washington’s core near-term interest in the Polish and Czech installations is to defend the continental US and European continent against limited, intercontinental ballistic missile launches from Iran and other countries deemed as “rogue countries.”
At a meeting on February 25, 2008, between the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Iranian government, UN inspectors confronted the Iranians with evidence of design studies for mounting nuclear warheads on long-range missiles. While the issue of missile defense has been controversial throughout the European continent, increased evidence supporting assertions that Iran is developing long-range missiles, capable of carrying nuclear warheads, may convince skeptical European leaders to reconsider their opposition to the US program.
A Militarized Iran
Due to President Ahmadinejad’s announcement indicating his country installed 6,000 centrifuges for the purpose of enriching uranium, Iran’s ballistic missile program and long-range capabilities is becoming an even greater concern for the United States and its regional allies.
Iran has repeatedly declared its intentions of developing a space center. However, the technology used in developing a space center is almost identical to the technology used in improving a long-range ballistic missile capability. To this end, historically, space programs have been an efficient cover up to acquire expertise in long-range missile technology.
With Iran constantly improving its missile technology, the United States, as well as Israel, is looking for ways to counter the threat. The Israelis have recently successfully simulated an interception of a rocket designed to mimic the Iranian Shahab missile with what is know as their, “Arrow” anti-ballistic missile system. As the war of words between Iran and Israel continue, Israeli leaders are improving their anti-ballistic missile capabilities, and recently attained approval to begin preparing a more advanced Arrow 3.
The militarization of Iran, specifically increasing its ballistic missile capabilities, is concerning to both the Middle East and Europe. Additionally, the United States has stepped up efforts in coordination with the Israeli military to launch a successful missile defense shield that can stop any incoming Iranian missile. With Iran in mind, the US is urging its European allies to host ballistic missile defense installations in Europe.
The February 4, 2008 launch of the Kavoshgar 1 rocket from a secret site southeast of Iran is likely an effort by Iran to boost its long-range ballistic missile capabilities. Iran is focused on acquiring the technology for a ballistic missile with a range of about 6,000km. A close examination of the photographs has largely indicated that the Iranians are following a similar path as North Korea, pursing a space program that enables Tehran to acquire the expertise and technology in long-range missile technology. As the Iranians continue improving their missile capabilities, the US will step up its efforts to convince its European allies of the growing military threat of Iran, especially if the Islamic Republic has the capabilities to strike European capitals.
