Highlights
– Government sets elections for November 30, 2008
– Côte d’Ivoire will continue to experience increased stability
– November elections will determine future stability in the country
On April 14, 2008, the government of Côte d’Ivoire announced that elections in the country would be delayed until November 2008, as the first round of voting will be held on November 30, 2008. Elections had previously been set for June 2008.
According to government spokesman Amadou Kone, the Independent Electoral Commission determined the election date. Parliamentary elections will be held separately, at a date not yet announced. The November elections will fulfill the mandate of the transitional government formed after the March 2007 peace agreement (Previous Report).
Lasting Peace
The November elections, which have been delayed three times previously, will fulfill the March 2007 peace agreement between the government and the New Forces rebel movement (Previous Report). Following a peace agreement ending the civil war, the country has suffered from division between the rebel-held northern half and the government controlled southern half. The peace agreement has slowly worked towards unifying the country, disarming militias and rebel groups, and creating a lasting peace, which would allow the United Nations (UN) Operation in Côte d’Ivoire (UNOCI) and French peacekeeping forces to eventually withdraw.
Obstacles Ahead
The government faces a daunting task of determining voter eligibility. Additionally, identity papers will need to be distributed to thousands of people who do not currently possess papers due to the impact of the civil war.
The disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) of former militia and rebel fighters also must continue. While there has been significant progress made over the past year, it remains uncertain to what extent the DDR program has accomplished its goal.
The government decision to cut taxes on key food imports in early April 2008 has thus far been sufficient to end the protests over the rising cost of food. However, as global commodity prices continue to increase, the government must be prepared to react swiftly to ensure stability in the lead up to the November 2008 elections.
The most significant obstacle the government will face, both in the months leading up to the election and soon after the election, will be unifying the northern and southern halves of the country. In addition to the DDR program, the government must work to end the smuggling of cocoa from the country, which results in the loss of revenue due to export taxes.
Outlook
The revised election date has received support from notable Cote d’Ivoire leaders, to include former rebel leader and current Prime Minister Guillaume Soro. In a recent statement Soro asserted that the election date was the result of an agreement across the political spectrum. The UN and Burkina Faso, whose president Blaise Campaore played an important role in the March 2007 agreement, have also endorsed the date.
President Gbagbo, former President Henri Konan Bedie, and former Prime Minister Alassane Outtara are the expected candidates. The international community, most importantly the French and the UN, will need to work with the government to ensure the elections are free and fair.
While progress has been slow in implementing the March 2007 peace accord, greater stability in Côte d’Ivoire has occurred in the past year than since the outbreak of the civil war. We expect the trend towards achieving greater stability will continue in the near to mid-term. However, as recently witnessed in Kenya and Zimbabwe, we remain concerned over a renewal of violence should future elections be perceived as unfair or rigged.
