Highlights
– Study ranks 132 US cities on their vulnerability to a terrorist attack
– Scores based on social demographics/socio-economics, natural hazards, and infrastructure
– Report yields some surprising results, with Boise, Idaho placed among the top ten
In a study funded by the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS), professors from several prominent American universities have ranked 132 cities around the country based on their vulnerability to terrorism. The report, entitled “Benchmark Analysis for Quantifying Urban Vulnerability to Terrorist Incidents,” uses a complex mathematical formula to achieve a score for each city. This score is based off of three main factors: social demographics/socio-economics, natural hazards (i.e. floods, fires, earthquakes), and infrastructure.
The study yielded some surprising results, such as Boise, Idaho falling among the top ten cities vulnerable to terror. While the report’s results have drawn mixed opinions, it serves to highlight the importance of continually working to reduce vulnerabilities in order to prevent and/or prepare for an attack on the US homeland.
Details of the Study
The study was conducted over a four-year time period, and draws on data collected from 1970 through 2004 on disasters and other hazardous events, such as terrorist attacks. In addition to receiving a ranking, cities were also placed in a threat-level color category: green for low, yellow for medium, and red for high.
Results
Boise, Idaho was the only city in the western US that was ranked among the ten most vulnerable locations, as the others were primarily from the east coast, such as New Orleans, New York City, Washington DC, Baton Rouge, and Charleston, SC.
According to the report, Boise is at a high risk of “extreme events,” such as wildfires or the failure of the Lucky Peak Dam that stores over 300,000 acre-feet of water, which could be exploited by extremists.
Other cities that were placed in the red color category were Houston, Raleigh/Durham, Charlotte, and Columbia, SC. Surprisingly, several major western cities ranked lower on the list, with Los Angeles placed at 41, San Francisco at 66, and Seattle at 87. Researchers have stated that these cities ranked lower as they were geographically spread out, had better equipped and trained emergency responders, and have hardened their infrastructure over the years due to numerous natural disasters, such as earthquakes.
Study Draws Mixed Opinions
While some officials and academics have indicated their belief that the study is an important aspect in understanding the overall risk of terrorism to the US, critics have questioned if the report identified the correct factors in assessing a city’s vulnerability, or if other key criteria were not considered. For instance, critics of the study have argued that larger cities remain more vulnerable due to population density and property values.
Despite disagreements over the report’s findings, the study has resulted in increased focus by some local officials on the threat of terrorism. Specifically, authorities in Idaho have indicated that they are working with federal officials, such as the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and the report’s authors to develop procedures and other measures that will help reduce their vulnerability and bolster their response capabilities in the event of an attack or natural disaster.
Looking Forward
While the possibility of an attack by Islamic extremists in a smaller US city cannot be discounted, we believe that a strike by al-Qaeda or an associated group is more likely to occur in a major US urban center. We maintain that future attacks by al-Qaeda will likely reflect the group’s targeting preferences—inflicting mass casualties while simultaneously damaging the economy. The group has shown a propensity for attacking mass transit systems, and will likely continue to plot strikes against such infrastructure.
Long-term planning and patience are the hallmarks of al-Qaeda’s operational actions, and the group will adapt to security measures in place and base their method of attack on the security weaknesses of the target. As such, it remains important for all US cities to continue to improve their infrastructure and work to reduce potential vulnerabilities in order to best prevent and prepare for an attack on the homeland.
