Highlights
– Kuwait dissolves its parliament and schedules elections for May 17, 2008
– First election under the new election law
– Independents and reformers are unlikely to make substantial gains in parliament
On March 19, 2008, the Kuwait government dissolved parliament and scheduled new parliamentary elections on May 17, 2008. The dissolution of parliament resulted from a dispute between the cabinet and parliamentary officials concerning a pay raise and debt forgiveness bill for public sector employees. The proposed increase in pay came one month after the cabinet approved a public sector pay raise of 120 dinars (US$420) per month.
The May 17, 2008 election will be the first held under the new election law consolidating Kuwait’s 25 former constituencies into five, increasing the new of constituents represented per deputy from 5,000 to 50,000. The law is designed to decrease the influence of Kuwait’s dominant tribes in parliament, but the measure is unlikely to achieve its goal.
Tribal Primaries
Despite a decade old law prohibiting political parties and the holding of political primaries, Kuwaiti tribes continue to hold primaries at public meeting places called Diwaniyas. Tribal primaries are designed to limit the number of candidates on a given ballot from each tribe, thus maximizing the probability that the tribe will win as many parliamentary seats as possible. The government is opposed to this practice because it gives the tribal candidates a clear advantage over independent candidates and results in the disproportionate representation of tribesmen in parliament.
As a result, the government is working to prevent the holding of tribal primaries by removing Diwaniyas from public property, arresting tribesmen who participate in primaries, and passing a law that prohibits public gatherings and demonstrations. The government hopes the prevention of successful tribal primaries and the five constituency law will lead to the election of additional independents and economic reformers.
Need for Economic Reform vs. Tribal Clientelism
Kuwait tribal custom requires members of the tribe to assist another tribesman when asked. In Kuwait, tribal custom has led to widespread clientelism and vote buying; including, the hiring of under qualified individuals for government jobs, the lifelong public employment welfare system, and pay increases for public employees. In addition, tribesmen are more inclined to focus on popular issues like governmental oversight, rather than economic and tax reform.
The opposition to tribal influence in parliament is called the “Urbans.” Hailing from Kuwait’s major cities, the Urbans are predominantly western educated technocrats. They blame the tribes for hindering integration into society, urban, social, and economic development, and the functioning of the state. The Urbans are predominantly concerned with the passage of economic diversification and reform. They consider the limit to Kuwait’s oil resources the greatest threat to its future and want to follow in Dubai, Qatar, and Bahrain’s shoes by diversifying Kuwait’s economy away from oil-based industries.
Future Outlook
It is unlikely that the new election law will succeed in limiting tribal representation in Kuwait’s parliament. Regardless of attempts to disrupt tribal primaries, the tribes remain more organized than independent candidates, who are negotiating side-alliances with Islamic candidates. Therefore, disputes between the government and the parliament will continue to disrupt Kuwaiti political and economic development for the mid-term.
Though the cabinet has recently passed a cut in tax on foreign firms and the privatization of Kuwait Airways, the tribal delegates continue to maintain their support based on the provision of constituents with government jobs. They will, therefore, prove unwilling to cut government welfare and introduce necessary taxes. The government will not risk the possible backlash from suspending parliament, and independents and reformers are less entrenched in society than their opponents. Overall, the path to political change in Kuwait remains an uphill battle.
