Highlights
– Northern Iraq may be PKK’s last stand
– Goal of an independent Kurdistan within Turkey fades
– PKK searching for relevancy
The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is an organization in flux. At the moment, it is under siege by Turkish military and security forces determined to defeat the organization both in Turkey and on the other side of its border within Northern Iraq.
In the intervening years from the group’s heyday of violent activity during the 1980s and 1990s, the organization has changed in strength, activity, organization and philosophy. The original incarnation of the PKK formed in 1974 promoted a Marxist ideology and was dedicated to establishing an independent Kurdish state in southeastern Turkey. It is believed that some 30,000 people were killed in the insurgency over several decades. In the 1990s, the PKK conducted more urban terrorism campaigns both at home and abroad mostly against Turkish diplomatic and economic targets. The Kurdish cause also gained a great deal of sympathy abroad. The PKK ran successful fundraising and propaganda campaigns especially in Europe much to the chagrin of the Turkish government.
The PKK in Decline
However, in the last decade various factors greatly impacted the operational capability of the PKK. First, the PKK began to lose support of the local Kurdish population who grew tired of war and victimization thanks to some of the PKK’s more brutal tactics. At the same time, the Turkish government started to institute some reforms for its Kurdish minority population. The leader of the PKK, Abdullah Ocalan, was finally caught and returned to Turkey in 1999. His capture and imprisonment was a tremendous blow to the organization’s psyche and it has lacked definitive leadership since that time. To date, no charismatic personality has followed in Ocalan’s footsteps.
In 1999, a cease-fire was declared which “officially” lasted until 2004. During this time, the PKK claimed they wanted to restrain from the use of violence to pursue more political approaches and underwent, several name changes and reorganizations. However, they refused to give up their arms citing self-defense reasons. After the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks both the United States and allied European governments defined the group as a terrorist organization. The PKK’s status as a terrorist organization is significant in that it has lead to marked difficulties in fundraising and support in Europe. Membership in the organization has also been reduced. It is estimated that at the PKK’s peak, the organization had 50,000 members but today it is estimated only 3,000-5,000 active members remain, although the PKK claims there are more. The hopes for an independent Kurdistan now seem remote and have been replaced by hopes for autonomy and improved civil rights.
Reemergence
Yet, the PKK does not appear to be giving up their fight. In 2004, the PKK reemerged from their period of dormancy and started conducting terrorist attacks, specifically targeting Turkey’s tourism industry, a tactic they had used previously. In addition, an offshoot organization of the PKK emerged, the Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK), which took responsibility for a number of attacks. During this period, it also appeared that differing factions existed within the PKK making it difficult for the organization to pursue a cohesive strategy. When certain factions declared a cease-fire and expressed interest in political negotiation, violent activities broke out elsewhere. It is thought the emergence of the TAK might be an indication of a factional split. The PKK’s recent activities can be seen as a declaration proving the organization is still active and relevant today and as an invitation to the Turkish government to respond to them.
Government Response
The Turkish government’s cross-border military operations against the PKK in Northern Iraq can be viewed from several different perspectives. On one hand, the fact that Turkey is willing to risk the consequences of a military incursion into another state to combat the PKK is an indication of how seriously the Turkish state views the threat from the PKK. The Turkish government strongly believes that it is their right to defend themselves against terrorism from the PKK through any means necessary, in this case military action. This action however, does elevate the threat status of the PKK. Recently, Turkish political opposition groups attacked a senior military official accusing him of using military terminology and courtesies to describe the PKK, a designation they do not believe a terrorist organization deserves. While the PKK is no longer the potent force it once was, and is unlikely in its current incarnation to prevaricate the same level of instability and violence that plagued Turkey in previous decades, the organization has aptly demonstrated it ability to launch terrorist attacks on Turkey’s tourist sector and against security and police personnel. The audacity of some of these attacks made the Turkish government look weak and ineffective to stop the attacks. Thus, going after the PKK at the source—their safe havens or the camps they established in Northern Iraq, has become the government’s primary method for dealing with the PKK. However, it should be noted that the PKK has taken refuge in this region previously, a measure that has made driving them out of the area very difficult in the past.
Future Outlook
The PKK is on the run in Northern Iraq, but history has shown that the organization’s members have been very good at hiding out and regrouping. This may be the group’s last big demonstration of relevancy, but they are not likely to disappear into oblivion either. A senior PKK commander has been urging Kurdish youth to rise up because the Turkish government wants to destroy them. During Newroz holiday festivals in Turkey, unrest broke out over demonstrators hurling stones and chanting slogans in support of the PKK. Despite its bloody past, the PKK still projects the image to many of a willingness to stand up and defend Kurdish rights. Finally, rumors are circulating indicating the PKK is looking at other geographic areas to expand their support networks, namely in the Caucasus/Central Asia region. Officials in Azerbaijan will not confirm any PKK presence in the country but there are allegations that the group may be approaching the country to link up with other terrorist militant groups. It is likely that we will see another dormant period approaching as the PKK regroups and tries to reconstitute. Today in modern Turkey, many citizens are more concerned about their economic quality of life than the plight of the PKK. The Turkish government has also pledged to invest in development aid and language programming in the poor Kurdish regions of Turkey, and has publicly stated that political, economic and cultural issues of the Kurdish minority must be addressed to discourage support for organizations such as the PKK. In this context, the PKK will truly have to reinvent itself to face modern realities.
