Highlights
– Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon boycotted the 2008 Arab Summit in Damascus
– Absent countries protesting Syrian interference in Lebanese domestic politic
– Syria and Iran remain strongly allied despite opposition
Boycotted by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon, the Syrian-hosted, 2008 Arab Summit displayed the growing chasm between moderate Sunni Arab governments and the al-Assad regime and its Iranian ally. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon boycotted the summit in protest of Syria’s role in destabilizing the Lebanese government and Iran’s growing influence in the region. Additionally, the countries’ boycott was in line with an unpublished US policy to pressure Syria to end its alliance with Iran.
The Syrian-Iranian alliance, however, remains steadfast. Since Iran intervened to supplement Syria’s income following the withdrawal of Saudi Arabian financing, US-Arab allies have little leverage with the Syrian government. Unfortunately, the lack of international influence over Syria will likely equal a continued Lebanese political stalemate.
The Summit
Convened in Damascus on March 29, 2008, due to the boycott of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon, the 2008 Arab Summit was a platform for Syrian diplomacy. Dubbed the “axis of resistance,” Syria, Iran, Hizballah, and Hamas are considered the counter alliance to US influence in the region. Though Syria hoped the summit would provide it with a platform to win support among its peers, it did not miss a chance to vilify US aims in the region. In a statement given the day prior to the summit, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moualem promoted Syrian and Iranian opposition to US interference in Arab politics saying, “they [US] did their best to prevent the summit but they failed.” The point was furthered by the presence of Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, whose presence reflected Iran’s influence in the league despite its non-member status.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad told attendees Syria will support “Arab or non-Arab efforts” to end Lebanon’s political crisis “on the condition that they are based on Lebanese national consensus.”’
Future Outlook: Lebanon Weighs In
On April 6, 2008, Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora rebuked Syria for interfering in Lebanese domestic politics in an effort to obtain Saudi Arabian financing saying, “It is inappropriate for an Arab state to hold a brother state hostage to extract ransom from a third brother state.” After five months without a president and seventeen months without holding a parliamentary session, the March 14 Coalition is running out of options to exert pressure on the Syrian-led Opposition to foster compromise (Previous Report). For Lebanon, the Arab Summit represented a further entrenchment of the Iran/Syria-US/Saudi Arabia divide and declining hope for a meaningful political compromise.
Long the victim of foreign political intervention, the stage is set for Lebanon to continue without a president or effective government. Syria and Iran will likely postpone the presidential election until after the promised Hizballah retaliation for the security head, al-Mughnieh’s assassination, hoping the encounter will yield Hizballah enhanced popularity among the Lebanese populace (Previous Report). If Hizballah does succeed, the opposition will likely deem the government ineffectual, calling for the dissolution of Parliament and early elections.
In the event that Hizballah’s reputation is severely injured by the operation, the March 14 Coalition will likely renew its threats to call Parliament to session in the opposition’s absence. Either scenario threatens further political instability for Lebanon in the near to mid-term.
