Highlights
– North Korea test-fires multiple short-range missiles
– Latest firing is likely saber rattling by the North
– Inter-Korean relations are at an all time low, but an outright conventional war is unlikely in the near to mid-term
On March 28, 2008, North Korea test-fired multiple short-range missiles into the Yellow Sea, a fresh sign of North Korea’s growing frustration with the United States and South Korea’s new, more critical government.
The missile launches raise new questions of how far the North and South are willing to go in asserting their tough confrontational policies. It also puts the two Koreas on the path toward another crisis in what has primarily been a war of words punctuated by occasional armed clashes.
The election of President Lee Myung-bak in South Korea coupled with North Korea’s growing frustration with the international community, underscores the latest missile launch may contribute to further instability in the heavily militarized peninsula.
A Militarized Peninsula
Despite Pyongyang’s inability to feed its own population, the country has spent heavily improving its military capabilities. At present, North Korea has more than 800 ballistic missiles and more than 1,000 missiles of various ranges.
The Taepodong-1 missile is a multi-stage missile with an estimated range of about 2,000 km to 2,5000km. The Taepodong-2 missile, with a range 3,500km to 4,300km, was test-launched in July 2006, but destructed 40 seconds after launch.
Currently, South Korean military and civilian facilities are highly vulnerable to a potential missile attack from the North. Despite upgrades to the PAC-3 Patriot missile, significantly enhancing the protection of South Korean facilities, a shortage of Patriot missiles does little to counter the North’s massive missile arsenal. With the election of Lee Myung-bak and pressure from the United States, South Korea may put missile defense once again at the forefront of its defense policy. The development of a systematic missile defense would greatly increase tensions with the North, which would likely interpret the action as a “provocation.”
However, even a viable missile defense would likely not fully protect South Korea from a potential North Korean attack. Pyongyang has spent significant amounts of money upgrading its submarine force, as well as upgrading its artillery encampments that could cause severe damage to Seoul and other South Korean cities. While the North’s short to medium-range missiles do pose a threat to the South, it’s North Korea’s 1.2 million-man army, growing submarine force, and artillery encampments that may ultimately tip the balance in a potential military conflict on the peninsula.
Saber Rattling
The latest firing of the Russian design Styx missiles is likely typical saber rattling by the North as it is not uncommon for North Korea to test-launch short to medium-range missiles or use harsh rhetoric against the South.
To further raise tensions, South Korea’s General Kim Tae-young recently announced plans to launch a “pre-emptive” strike against North Korean nuclear facilities if Pyongyang were to launch a nuclear missile at a National Assembly hearing. Kim’s use of the term “pre-emptive” has led to significant rumbling, as it is a tactic the North often accuses the US of exploiting. Further, Pyongyang has threatened to turn the South into “ashes” if Kim follows through on his threat.
Additionally, Pyongyang recently accused the South of infiltrating dozens of warships in its waters across the disputed sea border, the Northern Limit Line (NLL). The line is the site of two deadly naval clashes in 1999 and 2002, resulting in heavy casualties on both sides. However, North Korea’s NLL rhetoric is likely due to the approaching crabbing season rather than any real infiltrations from South Korea’s navy.
Outlook
North Korea’s recent provocative political statements, increased military rhetoric, and launching of its short-range missile, is likely part of a larger campaign against South Korea’s new conservative administration as President Lee Myung-bak has vowed to take a tougher stance against the communist nation.
The worse case scenario for the Korean peninsula involves North Korea’s efforts to ramp-up tensions to the point of bloodshed if the conservatives follow through on their refusal to provide aid for the North, unless Pyongyang provides clear and established proof that the communist nation has dismantled its nuclear program. Lee also wants to hold back humanitarian aid until North Korea returns some of the 500 South Koreans held in the North, most of them fisherman whose boats strayed into North Korean waters.
General Kim Tae-young’s remarks regarding a pre-emptive strike on the North is a key reminder that the South has ever made of military retaliation against the North Korea, a significant sign of South Korea’s growing frustration and assertiveness towards Pyongyang. Such statements have a serious impact on the settlement of the nuclear issue and ultimately the goal of disabling North Korea’s nuclear facilities.
As for now, the process of inter-Korean reconciliation remains on hold. Lee’s more aggressive stance will certainly increase tensions with the North, placing the peninsula on a high state of alert. Despite the rising tensions, an outright conventional war between the two Korea’s is unlikely in the near to mid-term. However, North Korea has plenty of ways to remind South Korea of its options if Lee refuses to back down from his hard line stance, including sporadic naval clashes, military maneuvers, kidnapping South Korean fisherman, further nuclear testing, and increased rhetoric of North Korea’s ability to destroy the South.
