Highlights
– Egyptians hold one-day mass labor strike demanding higher wages
– Muslim Brotherhood advocate boycotting April 8, 2008 local elections
– Hundreds of protestors, rioters, and opposition members arrested ahead of elections
– Large scale unrest will likely continue post elections, as social and economic conditions worsen in Egypt
On April 6, 2008, thousands of Egyptians angry about rising prices and stagnant wages torched buildings, looted shops and threw bricks at police who responded with tear gas (Unrest Incident). Approximately 200 individuals were arrested and 80 others wounded in the Nile Delta town of Mahalla el-Kobra, where the riots broke out at the largest textile factory in Egypt. Nearly 500 others were arrested across Egypt, as thousands skipped work and school, and hundreds protested over rising food costs and low wages (Previous Report). The strike and riots, backed by political opposition groups, came two days before Egypt’s key elections on April 8, 2008, creating some apprehension among some government officials.
However, Egypt’s leading opposition movement, the Muslim Brotherhood, declared it would boycott local elections after it was allowed to field only 20 candidates for thousands of open seats in parliament. Nearly 1,000 Brotherhood members have been arrested in last four months, in what opposition members claim to be a mass government campaign to weed-out Muslim Brotherhood candidates (Previous Report). With the Brotherhood’s boycott of the elections, it is anticipated that the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) will likely sweep this year’s key municipal elections, boosting the party’s potential to win more votes for the 2012 presidential elections.
Municipal Elections Key for Future President
Despite entering nearly 5,000 members as “independents” to compete for 53,000 seats at the various levels of local elections, only 500 Muslim Brotherhood candidates were able to register for the elections. As the first local elections to take place under the new constitutional amendments passed in March 2007, this year’s local elections are more significant than those of past years (Previous Report). Particularly because recent amendments, like Article 76, stipulate that any independent candidates aspiring to compete for the presidency must obtain the support of 140 members of the locally elected councils in addition to the support of at least 90 parliament members.
With its 88 members already in parliament, the Brotherhood – if it won 140 more local seats – would be in position to put a candidate on the presidential ballot. However, the Brotherhood’s call to boycott the elections, coupled with the movement’s 20 members already on the ballot, does not pose a significant threat for the NDP in the April 8, 2008 municipal elections.
Unrest Likely to Worsen
As the NDP is in a likely position to sweep local elections, and as the struggle for increased wages and lower food prices continues, large-scale civil unrest across Egypt is likely to intensify in the near to mid term. The nationwide strike was the first major attempt by opposition groups to turn the past year’s labor unrest into a wider political protest against the regime. Unfortunately for the government, rising international prices for bread, along with short-handed government compensations, has helped opposition groups to stir-up unrest in their favor ahead of this year’s important elections.
Ultimately, if economic and political conditions do not improve soon, large-scale unrest is likely to increase in the near to mid-term. Further, it would be potentially more dangerous for Egypt if unrest continues, as it would create more fertile ground for breeding and recruiting underground Islamist militants already displeased with the actions of the ruling government.
