Highlights
– Spanish Socialist party Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero wins re-election campaign
– Country remains hopeful due to Zapatero’s promises of economic reform
– Combating ETA remains key government initiative
– Zapatero must be successful or else face marked decline in public support
On March 9, 2008, Socialist Prime Minister (PM) Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero won 43.6 percent of the national vote, attaining a win over his opponent, People’s Party (PP) candidate, Mariano Rajoy. The win extends his position as Spanish PM. Zapatero won 169 seats out of a total 350 in parliament giving him a slim lead over the PP’s 153 seats.
Zapatero’s victory follows a surprise election win in 2004 in the aftermath of Spain’s largest terrorist attack, the March 11, 2004 Madrid train bombings , and serves to legitimize his previous election.
Returning to office, PM Zapatero faces significant challenges due to a declining Spanish economy and the country’s continuous struggle to combat Basque separatist group, ETA. Due to the scope of these issues, his success as a second term PM is inextricably tied to his accomplishments in these two areas. To this end, should he fail at achieving economic stability and a negotiated peace agreement with ETA, the Socialist party will suffer the consequences, leading to marked public backlash and a resurgence of public support for the opposition PP.
Zapatero Wins Re-Election Bid; Faces Significant Challenges
On March 9, 2008, Spanish PM Joes Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, won his re-election bid to take the office of Prime Minister once again. Zapatero’s Socialist party won approximately 43.6 percent of the vote compared to 40.1 percent won by the opposition People’s Party (PP). The slim majority win gives Zapatero 169 seats out of a total 350. Due to his slim majority win, Zapatero will once again be forced to rely on the support of minority parties, extending campaign reform promises such as increased political autonomy for Spain’s Catalonia region to Catalan Nationalists.
Adding to the pressures of taking office once again, Zapatero faces significant challenges due to Spain’s rapidly declining economy and ongoing battle against staunch nationalist separatist group, ETA.
In stark contrast to his 2004 election win, PM Zapatero is set to take the reigns of a country struggling to maintain economic stability. After years of strong economic growth and declining unemployment rates, the international financial crisis spurred by the US sub-prime mortgage crisis, coupled with the end of the Spanish construction boom, have left Spain reeling in economic crisis. PM Zapatero has called for specific reforms to include a marked reduction in temporary work, improved integration of women into the workforce, increased minimum pensions, and improved employment and housing for the country’s young people.
Two days prior to the election, on March 7, 2008, former Socialist councilor, Isaias Carrasco, was shot dead in an apparent ETA-waged assassination outside of his home in the Basque town of Mondragon. The attack indicates ETA’s resurgence and continued commitment to its fight for an independent Basque state. Further the brazen attack serves as a painful reminder of PM Zapatero’s continued failures to negotiate with the terror group. Following his March 2008 election, Zapartero highlighted a key government priority would be to fight “against ETA’s terrorism.” Recognizing his failed efforts to negotiate with the armed terror group, PM Zapatero stated, “This must be the case in the next four years, until ETA completely disappears.”
ETA Remains Key Issue
Despite Zapatero’s majority win, Spain’s ongoing battle against ETA and Zapatero’s previous failures to negotiate with the group remains a sore point among Spaniards. ETA has killed more than 800 people through the duration of its four-decade struggle to attain an independent Basque homeland. Facing increasing public discontent due to ETA-inspired violence, PM Zapatero set out to establish peace negotiations with the group in 2006. However, citing frustration due to the government’s slow pace, on December 30, 2006, ETA members detonated a car bomb in an underground parking garage in Madrid’s International Airport . The attack killed two people and injured 26. Following the attacks, PM Zapatero came under harsh public scrutiny for his failure to negotiate with ETA.
Despite recent significant crackdowns and successful operations between France and Spain, the March 7, 2008 assassination of Socialist party member Isaias Carrasco outside of his home in the northern Basque region, has reignited fears ETA is returning to its roots, targeting political leaders. Further, the return to the violence underscores ETA’s renewed commitment to violent attacks.
As we previously reported, we believe ETA will continue to seek to retaliate against the Zapatero-led government (Previous Report). To this end, we will see continued terror plots bearing the traditional hallmarks of ETA – chaotic violence with less emphasis on civilian casualties. However, the Carrasco assassination may indicate an increased targeting of government officials.
Future Outlook
Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero faces significant challenges in his second term as Spanish Prime Minister. Specifically, Socialist Zapatero won a second term in office following a bitter election campaign ultimately overshadowed by the shocking murder of a local politician, believed to be the work of ETA. Securing the win served to legitimize his previous term and indicate public hope the Socialist party could achieve substantial change in the country. On March 10, 2008, addressing a crowd of supporters outside of his party’s Madrid headquarters, PM Zapatero stated, “The Spanish people have spoken clearly and decided to begin a new era.” Zapatero underscored his intentions to achieve economic gains for every Spanish citizen stating, “I will govern with a firm but open hand… I will govern for all, but do so thinking most of all for those in need.”
Returning to office, PM Zapatero faces significant challenges due to a declining Spanish economy and the country’s continuous struggle to combat Basque separatist group, ETA. Due to the sheer scope of these issues, his success as a second term PM is inextricably tied to his achievements in these two areas. To this end, should he fail at achieving economic stability and a negotiated peace agreement with ETA, the Socialist party will suffer the consequences, leading to marked public backlash and a resurgence of public support for the opposition PP.
