Highlights
− FNL rebels set to return to peace talks
− FNL is the last rebel group operating in Burundi
− Peace deal likely to be reached
The Forces for National Liberation (FNL) leader Agathon Rwasa has stated the FNL is ready to return to peace negotiations with the Burundian government. The peace talks, which began in September 2006, were suspended in July 2007 due to accusations by the FNL that the South African mediators involved in the negotiations were biased towards the Burundian government (Previous Report).
Roots of the Conflict
The FNL is one of several Hutu rebel groups formed following the assassination of democratically elected president Melchior Ndadaye in 1993. The assassination of Ndadaye, a Hutu, by Tutsi factions of the Burundian armed forces resulted in a 12-year civil war, during which between 300,000 and 400,000 people were killed. Additionally, FNL and other Hutu rebel groups were involved in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s civil war that lasted from 1998-2003.
The Peace Process
A power-sharing agreement reached in 2005, involving all Hutu rebel groups except for the FNL, ended the civil war. Elections were successfully held in August 2005, with the Hutu National Council for the Defense of Democracy–Forces for the Defense of Democracy (NCDD-FDD) winning. Clashes between the FNL and Burundian forces continued until the FNL and the government signed a ceasefire agreement in September 2006. The framework for the peace agreement includes demobilizing the FNL, with the option to permit rebels to be integrated into the national army.
Following the suspension of peace talks, sporadic clashes have erupted between FNL rebels and Burundian security forces. In particular, in recent weeks a significant spike in small-scale clashes has occurred.
Outlook
An initial round of talks began on March 16, 2008 in Tanzania. The talks are intended as a confidence-building measure as well as to discuss logistics of completing the peace negotiations. The primary point of contention is the FNL’s request for amnesty for an estimated 3,000 FNL members. Further, the FNL wants amnesty before it agrees to rejoin the cease-fire monitoring team on April 1, 2008.
The request for amnesty is due to FNL rebels’ involvement in several massacres during the civil war, including the 2000 Titanic Express Massacre, in which 21 Tutsis were killed, and the 2004 Gatumba massacre, in which an estimated 152 Congolese civilians were killed. Following the Gatumba massacre, South African President Thabo Mbeki called for the International Criminal Court (ICC) to prosecute those responsible. The African Union (AU) labeled the FNL a terrorist organization and the United Nations (UN) condemned the attack. However, the ICC has thus far declined to investigate the massacre. As seen recently in Uganda with the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), amnesty for war criminals may be necessary to secure a larger peace.
In an attempt to increase their leverage, especially regarding the issue of amnesty, the FNL will likely be involved in further small-scale clashes with the Burundian army to demonstrate they remain a viable rebel group. Therefore, the Burundian army must protect itself while at the same time avoid escalating the situation.
By signaling their willingness to return to negotiations, the FNL appears serious about signing a lasting peace agreement and fully disbanding. The Burundian government, in order to ensure lasting peace, will likely grant the FNL members amnesty and fully integrate the rebels into the national army. Peace in Burundi will likely be achieved in mid-term. Additionally, a stable, peaceful Burundi may lead to increased stability in the region.
