Highlights
– China announces plan to increase its military budget by 18 percent
– China’s near term focus centers on a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait
– Long term trends suggest China is building a force intended for operations beyond Taiwan
China’s rapid rise in recent years as a regional economic, military, and political power with growing global influence is an important element in the modern strategic landscape, one that has significant implications to the region and the global community.
An ongoing dispute between China and the United States over military spending took a turn for the worse when the Chinese government announced another drastic increase in its defense budget. Beijing officials declared the nation’s military budget would increase by 18 percent in 2008, continuing its controversial trend of boosting spending for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in 19 of the past 20 years.
Intentions and Capability
According to the US Department of Defense (DoD), the PLA is pursuing a comprehensive transformation from a mass army designed for protracted wars of attrition on its territory to one capable of fighting and winning short duration, high intensity conflicts along its borders against high-tech adversaries.
China’s near term focus centers on preparing for contingencies in the Taiwan Strait, including the likely possibility of US intervention in the conflict. However, Beijing’s long-term thinking is looking farther outward; possibly developing capabilities meant to deal with conflicts over resources or disputed territories.
Chinese leaders have yet to explain in detail, short and long term objectives of the country’s modernizing military capabilities, but have insisted the rise in spending is solely for defense purposes.
In recent years, China has invested in new generations of survivable nuclear weapons, capable of targeting the United States, advanced short and medium-range ballistic missiles, attack submarines, precision weaponry, mobile air defense systems, and guided missile destroyers. However, US officials remain particularly concerned due to China’s active nuclear force modernization efforts. The deployment of the new DF-31 and DF-31A intercontinental-range missiles greatly enhances the country’s strategic strike capabilities.
Another concern to the DoD is China’s ability to exploit the Internet. The US has accused Chinese hackers of infiltrating US government computer networks at the Department of State, Department of Commerce, and DoD. Although specifically concerning to the US, Chinese hackers were also successful in Germany, France, and the United Kingdom.
As a result of increased hacking and increasingly malicious Internet operations against US institutions, the US is requesting China clarify its intentions. To date, these efforts have been unsuccessful.
China in the Long Term
China’s military modernization is affecting both regional and international military balances. Further, China’s new place as a sophisticated modern machine is causing significant concern among Asia-Pacific powers and the world.
In regards to military spending and capabilities, China’s near term focus appears to be Taiwan, but long-term trends strongly suggest China is building a force intended to deploy operations beyond Taiwan. Historically deterred both by Taiwan’s technological edge and its close defense ties with the United States, China is exhibiting signs of confidence indicating the balance may now be shifting in its favor.
China continues to publicize data and engage in actions inconsistent with its declared policies, further raising international suspicion. The lack of explanation and transparency in China’s military affairs poses a major risk to stability by increasing the possibility of misunderstanding or miscalculation. Until Chinese leaders clearly promulgate the country’s strategic goals, confusion and fear will continue.
While military spending remains far below that of the US, China’s rapid push into high-technology warfare tactics, including anti-satellite weapons and cyber warfare capabilities remains a significant concern. Further, China’s emphasis on programs designed to give it a competitive advantage over historically technologically superior adversaries is further evidence the country is looking beyond Taiwan in long-term strategic capability and eventually may pose a serious military threat to the United States.
