Highlights
– Security forces arrest over 250 Muslim Brotherhood (MB) members in six provinces in the run up to April 2008 local elections
– Ruling party fears MB may be able to win large portion of seats if members were left to openly campaign
– Egypt’s consistent intolerance of political opposition groups demonstrates its lack of support for democratic reform
Over a two-week period, Egyptian security forces arrested over 250 Muslim Brotherhood (MB) members in an attempt to prevent the banned opposition party from running as independents in the April 8, 2008 local council elections. Since December 2006, authorities have arrested over 600 MB members from across Egypt. The latest round up occurred on March 3, 2008, when Egyptian police detained at least 36 members, including a number of likely candidates scheduled to participate in local elections next month.
As we previously reported, the ruling NDP is intent on preventing a repeat of the 2005 parliamentary elections, when MB members running as independents won 88 out of 454 seats (Previous Report). Unfortunately, systematic arrests of opposition and/or independent group members negatively impact the nation’s prospects for democratic change and subsequent lasting political and economic stability in the near to mid-term.
Amendment Changes Worry NDP
Following an unexpected successful performance in the November and December 2005 parliamentary elections, country leaders moved to take precautionary measures that would prevent the MB from making another major advancement. The first step was to postpone the 2006 local council elections for two years, which would seemingly give MB members time to “simmer down” after achieving a large win in the parliamentary elections.
The second step was to amend the Constitution, making it more difficult for opposition parties to run in any future elections (Previous Report). To this end, the government passed a major amendment in March 2007, which banned the existence of political parties/activity based on religion.
To the NDP’s dismay, the MB did not slow down in the two-year election break period. On the contrary, MB members are aware of the importance of winning local council seats and thus continued their campaign efforts.
Egypt Pays Lip Service to Democratization Process
The recent arrests illustrate Egypt’s reluctance to commit wholeheartedly to the democratic process. During the NDP’s 9th annual general conference in November 2007, NDP delegates reviewed the progress made by party officials over the past year and presented an ambitious agenda for moving Egypt forward (Previous Report). Economic reform and democratization efforts were the two main issues discussed at the convention; however, an effective implementation of these reforms has yet to occur.
In the lead up to the elections, the Egyptian government will likely continue to crack down on MB supporters and members. Additionally, it is likely the government will carryout post-election arrests as protestors may take to the streets in opposition to government actions.
In light of increased arrests, we remain skeptical Egypt will seek to develop genuine democratic reforms thus hindering its chances to achieve lasting stability in the long-term.
