Highlights
– Protests will be a test to democracy in Armenia
– The opposition movement is growing larger over contested elections
– It is likely the country will face further instability if the election dispute is not addressed in an adequate manner
It is clear that although Armenian Prime Minister Serge Sarkasian was officially recognized on February 24, 2008 as the winner of the country’s Presidential elections with 53 percent of the vote, controversy over the election results remain. Sarkasian’s opponent, former President Levon Ter-Petrosian and his supporters, claim the election was rigged, and have called for new elections. Specifically the Ter-Petrosian’s camp has claimed the governing party used state resources to influence the vote and that double voting, ballot stuffing and physical intimidation of voters occurred. The current government of outgoing President Robert Kocharian denies such accusations, claiming the election was fair and that Ter-Petrosian lost the election by a very wide margin, winning only 21.5 percent of the vote. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) election monitors declared the election process as mostly fair but noted that there were some issues and further improvements were needed. Specifically they noted problems with vote counting in 16 percent of the polling stations they visited.
President Kocharian’s Dilemma
Despite the official and outside validation of the results of the election, demonstrations by pro-Ter-Petrosian supporters protesting the election results have occurred daily and show no sign of abating. Approximately 50,000 protestors are thought to have demonstrated on February 23, 2008 alone. Thus far, the protests have been peaceful and the government response has been restrained. It is likely that current President Robert Kocharian believed that protests would ultimately run out of steam, but instead are gaining more momentum. It is likely that Kocharian wants to avoid a situation that created instability in Georgia late last year. A harsh government crackdown on protestors tarnished the image of the Saakashvili government and Georgia’s democratic record. Armenia has been one of the more stable Central Asian countries in terms of governance. However, now faced with a growing opposition movement, Kocharian may be unable to ride out this storm.
Government Instability
Part of the problem facing the current government centers on high-ranking officials either resigning or joining the protest movements, a serious sign that the current government is facing division. Between February 23, 2008 and February 24, 2008, a number of opposition figures were detained and it is likely more arrests will follow. The Deputy Prosecutor General, Gagik Jhangirian who has come out in support of the opposition was arrested along with his brother and several others accused of being illegally armed, and intending to de-stabilize the situation in the capital. After a February 23, 2008 meeting with military and security officials, President Kocharian indicated he will not allow any forces to threaten Armenia’s domestic political stability and intends to maintain law and order. Whether or not this means that the government’s reaction to protests will become more aggressive is unknown, but it appears he is putting the country on notice. The arrest of opposition leaders is a troubling indication. Kocharian is framing his actions in the context of defending against a variety of forces trying to seize power.
Outlook
Major government crackdowns will likely damage Armenia’s democratic credentials much as it did with Georgia. However, the current government will soon be put to the test. On February 26, 2008 both opposition and pro-Sarkasian supporters will hold a rally—raising the potential for conflict between these two groups. If the government cannot resolve this issue peacefully, then it is possible Armenia may face a political crisis. The new Armenian President faces a litany of foreign affairs issues to include: dealing with the Nagarno-Karabakh conflict and Azerbaijan, as well as tense relations with neighboring Turkey. Having the legitimacy of his Presidency called into question will only make the job of the President more difficult.
