Highlights
– In the wake of Hezbollah commander, Imad Mughniyeh’s assassination, security across the US has beefed up
– Despite Hezbollah’s capabilities, an attack within the US is unlikely in the near term
– A successful attack within the US may have negative long-term consequences for Hezbollah
On February 16, 2008, FBI and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) officials distributed a bulletin to state and local law enforcement authorities warning them to watch for potential retaliatory strikes by the Lebanese-based terrorist group Hezbollah.
The warning came one day after Hezbollah vowed to avenge the death of Imad Mughniyeh, one of the organizations top commanders, by attacking Israeli and Jewish targets around the world.
Hezbollah in the United States
Purportedly, the FBI sent a confidential bulletin to its 101-Joint Terrorism Task Forces (JTTF) across the country warning of the possibility that Hezbollah would attack the United States in the wake of top Hezbollah commander, Imad Mughniyeh’s assassination. While an attack on the United States’ homeland is unlikely, Hezbollah has demonstrated its capability to respond outside the Middle East to similar events in the past.
The FBI informed field offices and other agency task forces to increase monitoring and surveillance of suspected Hezbollah operatives in the homeland. Specific focus areas include: the Detroit-Dearborn area of Michigan, New York, California, and other US locations containing large Lebanese and Muslim populations. Although no specific threat exists, the FBI is responding with increased vigilance due to Mughniyeh’s stature within Hezbollah. US authorities consider Hezbollah a sophisticated and well-disciplined terrorist group, receiving vast funding from foreign governments and private donors, as well as maintaining a global network of sleeper cells around the world. However, despite Hezbollah’s vast attack capabilities, we believe it is unlikely that operatives will launch attacks against the US homeland in the near term.
It is believed Hezbollah has achieved influence and a solid foundation in the United States, especially in the area of fund raising. According to an FBI counter-terrorism official, the US has uncovered dozens of Hezbollah fund-raisers and supporters resident in the country. However, these individuals are not considered potential attackers or “bomb throwers.”
In the past, Hezbollah has not launched attacks within the US. One theory is that Hezbollah has been able to raise so much money in the United States that it does not want to jeopardize its efforts by stepped-up enforcement actions. Also, there is an assumption that many Hezbollah supporters in the US would not support or tolerate Hezbollah-linked attacks within the country.
Worldwide Israeli and Jewish Targets
Although an attack on the US is unlikely, Hezbollah is likely to retaliate in some way in the near-term. Whether it will be an attack in Israel or around the world remains to be known. According to Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell, the threat is primarily against Israel. However, McConnell indicates possible targets may include synagogues and other Jewish/Israeli institutions located inside the United States.
The FBI has already called for increased security around numerous government buildings, Jewish institutions, Israeli institutions, and other potential targets. Increased security measures echos calls from Israeli intelligence that issued an emergency warning to security officers at all Israeli embassies, El Al offices abroad, and Jewish institutions.
Future Outlook
With Hezbollah blaming Israeli intelligence for the death of its commander, Israel is the primary target for a revenge attack. Despite the assumption the group will target an Israeli institution, it is unknown where Hezbollah will ultimately choose to attack.
The increased security measures and lack of Hezbollah “attack operatives” in the United States may deter the organization from launching an attack from within. Any successful attack launched by the militant organization in the United States will certainly be met with increased efforts to clampdown on Hezbollah’s vast fund raising network in the country, seriously damaging the organization and something the organization may not want to risk.
The stepped up security measures advocated by the FBI and McConnell’s warnings are largely precautionary. We maintain that Israel is in the primary target for attack as an attack against the United States may ultimately not be worth the risk in the long run.
