Highlights
– In the face of declining popularity, PM Abdullah called for early general elections
– Minority ethnic Chinese and Indians continue to feel disenfranchised by the majority Malay government
– Election is unlikely to appease protesters, leading to additional demonstrations and arrests in the near-term
On February 13, 2008, Malaysia’s Prime Minister (PM) Abdullah Ahmad Badawi announced that the constitutional monarchy had endorsed the dissolution of Parliament. Three days later, the Election Commission set a date to hold an early election on March 8, 2008, more than one year prior to the end of PM Abdullah’s term.
PM Abdullah most likely called the snap elections to regain support for his faltering reform program; however, rising ethnic tensions could diminish his party’s control of the government. Indian and Chinese minorities have staged several protests in past months, challenging a 35-year-old pro-Malay policy that they allege is discriminating against them. Recent reports indicate, Abdullah currently holds a 60 percent approval rating, compared with a rate of over 90 percent when he was elected in late 2003.
While the ruling National Front will likely lose support in the upcoming election, the Chinese comprise a small portion of the population and the more outspoken Indian population comprises an even smaller portion at only eight percent. Due to bothe groups’ status as minorities, it is highly unlikely they will greatly affect the outcome. More likely, however, is the continuance of ethnic tensions that may escalate into violent protests.
Tear Gassed Flowers
On February 16, 2008, ethnic Indians gathered in Kuala Lumpur again, accusing the government of inflation, electoral fraud and discriminating policies. The last time outraged Indians protested in November 2007, nearly 30,000 people turned out to demonstrate resulting in the arrest of 31 Indians for attempted murder (Previous Report).
Only an estimated 300 people participated in the most recent protest and planned to deliver flowers to the PM symbolizing love, peace and justice. However, demonstrators were met by approximately 100 riot police officers, and barricades on all roads leading to Parliament. Police then fired tear gas and water cannons to disperse the protesters.
Purportedly upwards of 20 people were arrested, however the government reports a mere nine remain in custody. The nine are members of the Hindu Rights Action Force or Hindraf, the group responsible for organizing the November 2007 protests.
Opposition Parties Unite
In light of the declining popularity of the National Front, the three main opposition parties – the ethnic Chinese-dominated Democratic Action Party, the Islamic Party of Malaysia and the People’s Justice party have formed an alliance. The parties are hoping to put aside their vast differences to break the two-thirds majority of the National Front.
However, this will not be an easy task as the National Front has ruled Malaysia since gaining independence from Britain 50 years ago. The National Front is a coalition of 14 parties, the largest being the United Malays National Organization (UMNO). The UMNO claims to represent the interests of the ethnic Malay Muslims, who comprise 60 percent of the population.
Additionally, the National Front coalition currently controls 90 percent of parliamentary seats.
Continued Discontentment Ahead
The opposition parties may gain some seats in the upcoming election due to the dissatisfaction of ethnic Indians at the National Front. Nevertheless, ethnic Indians comprise far too small a portion of the population to make a substantial difference and the National Front will likely maintain its two-thirds majority of the parliament.
Furthermore, the government’s decision to hold elections so soon will likely hurt opposition candidates as they only have 13 days to campaign after nominations are announced on February 24, 2008. As according to Malaysian law, following the dissolution of Parliament the government must hold elections within 60 days.
Despite opposition hopes of loosening the National Front’s current hold on Parliament, the outcome of the election is far more likely to increase ethnic tensions. Ethnic groups are largely voting against one another and minority populations will likely view a loss as another example of the government’s favoritism towards ethnic Malays. Continued protests will likely erupt into violent outbreaks, as the Malaysian government remains intolerant of any form of public dissent.
