Highlights
– Electoral disqualifications greatly inhibited the Reformists’ ability to win seats in the March 14, 2007 Parliamentary elections
– Ali Larijani formed a new rightist bloc comprised of technocrats that will pose the greatest challenge to the ruling party
– A strong showing by Larijani’s bloc will foreshadow Ahmadinejad’s replacement in the 2009 President election
Global leaders and political analysts are turning their attention to Iran in the run up to its March 14, 2008, Parliamentary election. Since Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad took power on August 6, 2005, Iran has faced an economic downturn and increased social and political polarization. President Ahmadinejad is largely blamed for the recession due to his eratic economic policies and radically conservative domestic and foreign policies.
Though President Ahmadinejad campaigned on a populist platform promising to deliver oil revenues to every family, eliminate poverty, and reign-in unemployment, the current inflation rate in Iran is approximately 19 percent, compared to 14.5 percent in 2005. Although the president’s foreign nuclear policies are widely acclaimed in Iran, his drastic attempts to consolidate his power in Iranian institutions, including sporadic firings of ministers, have caused him to lose favor among his peers in Parliament.
Additionally, Ahmadinejad’s combined failures provide impetus to the reformists and his adversaries within the Iranian right and are fueling hopes that moderate right and reformist candidates will stage a comeback in the March 2008 parliamentary election, leading to Ahmadinejad’s replacement in the 2009 Presidential Election.
Electoral Disqualifications
Since President Ahmadinejad’s election in 2005, the old clerical guard that dominated Iranian political institutions in the aftermath of the 1979 Iranian Revolution has lost political ground. The new generation of political elite led by President Ahmadinejad is comprised of former military commanders, filmmakers, and mayors. They came to power largely as a result of the disqualification of 3,600 reformist candidates in the 2004 parliamentary elections by the Ministry of Interior. Ayatollah Khamenei wrote a letter to the Guardian Council requesting the reinstatement of some moderate candidates, which led to the restoration of a few dozen candidates.
Similarly, 2,200 reformist candidates of the 7,200 candidates registered to compete for 290 Parliamentary seats in March 2007 were disqualified, including 19 seated ministers of Parliament. Once again, pressure from Ayatollah Khamenei resulted in the reinstatement of some of the “blacklisted” candidates, 831 in total. The majority of the reformist candidates, however, were withheld.
Iranian Political Frontrunners
Often criticized by Ahmadinejad supporters for not fulfilling Ayatollah Khomeini’s mandate to make Iran one of the greatest nations in the world, the clerical guard grew increasingly moderate over time, even supporting limited engagement of the US and its Western allies. Ahmadinejad’s domestic grandstanding and blatant attempts to usurp the power of the clergy and failure to deliver on campaign promises have effectively divided the Iranian Right. Therefore, plans to unite the conservative right under one political list in the Parliamentary election collapsed.
The resulting political parties are President Ahmadinejad’s “Principalist” and the Rightist technocrats led by former lead nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani, Tehran mayor Mohammad Ghalibaf (Previous Report), and former top commander of the Revolutionary Guard (IRG), Mohsen Rezai. The far right’s intension to re-elect current Parliamentary Speaker Gholam Ali Haddad Adel, elected the first non-clergy Speaker of Parliament in 2004, also instigated Larijani’s split from the ruling party, as he aspires to the position.
The 21 moderate reformist parties, however, successfully united under one party led by former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami. Greatly limited by the electoral disqualifications, the reformist party hopes to gain an enhanced presence in Parliament. However, the right’s tight grip on political institutions will ensure that the reformists’ power is limited to negligible.
A Look Forward
A strong showing by Larijani’s bloc is expected and will likely offset Ahmadinejad’s power in Parliament. A strong enough win will likely empower the moderate right to unseat Ahmadinejad in the 2009 Presidential election. Though Larijani’s bloc is not pro-Western by nature, its foreign policy will be more moderate than its colleagues’, with increased efforts to engage the West. A right technocratic parliament will also likely implement extensive government and economic reforms targeting corrupt practices and expensive economic subsidies.
